Deterministic machine analysis · ABSTENTION REPORT
Is Palimpsest ready to describe China's economic direction?
The machine desk tests primary-document parsing, historical depth and cross-desk coverage, then either publishes a bounded readiness analysis or records why it abstained.
Current gate result: Abstained because these predeclared evidence-readiness gates failed: substantive-desks, baseline-months, and parsed-primary-observations.
DETERMINISTIC MACHINE ANALYSIS · NO HUMAN INTERVIEW. This report uses checked-in aggregate evidence only. It cannot add testimony, observe private conduct or treat missing reporting as confirmation.
Sentence-level provenance
Analysis with citations attached
The paragraph is the published unit; the ledger beneath it shows the exact evidence IDs attached to each sentence and the de-duplicated lineage union for the block.
Claim block 1 · economic-readiness
The public economic pulse is warming_up and fails its substantive-desk gate at 3 of 5 and its baseline-history gate at 1 of 8 months. The primary-document index retains 13 document records, but 13 are marked not_parsed, so capture receipts cannot substitute for normalized economic observations. The machine desk therefore abstains from a broad direction-of-economy synthesis until the declared coverage, history and parsing gates pass.
The public economic pulse is warming_up and fails its substantive-desk gate at 3 of 5 and its baseline-history gate at 1 of 8 months.
Sentence 1 citations: evidence-economic-readiness
The primary-document index retains 13 document records, but 13 are marked not_parsed, so capture receipts cannot substitute for normalized economic observations.
Sentence 2 citations: evidence-primary-document-coverage
The machine desk therefore abstains from a broad direction-of-economy synthesis until the declared coverage, history and parsing gates pass.
Sentence 3 citations: evidence-economic-readiness, evidence-primary-document-coverage
Block evidence union: evidence-economic-readiness, evidence-primary-document-coverage
Independent lineage groups: pipeline:economic-pulse, pipeline:primary-document-receipts
Explanatory view
When the evidence arrived—and which sources travel together
- Primary-document capture and parsing coveragecontext · pipeline:primary-document-receiptsInspect receipt
- Economic pulse publication gatessupport · pipeline:economic-pulseInspect receipt
Evidence ledger
Receipts, values, rights and interpretation limits
Each public archive is a redacted aggregate capsule bound to the original input hash. Raw readings, IP-valued answers, contact data and person-level records are not copied into the archive.
| Relation | Evidence / lineage | Value or summary | Observed | Interpretation limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| supportDERIVED_ANALYSIS | Economic pulse publication gatesevidence-economic-readiness · pipeline:economic-pulsechina-economic-pulse-latest.json · sha256 be61a68e9f1f18894aec8c6cc1f53f46a3d4e8175bcb218072dc4ee2b2580bad |
warming_up publication-readiness-state; denominator: 4 publication gates | 24 Aug 2026 · 15:58 UTC | A readiness receipt evaluates whether a synthesis can publish; it is not itself an economic observation.Open redacted evidence capsule (addressed by original input hash) Attribution required for redistribution.Redistribution: ATTRIBUTION_REQUIRED · Reuse: derived_only · Training: prohibitedProvider(s): Palimpsest aggregate economic readings, config/china_econ_sources.jsonUpstream lineage: publisher:bank-of-canada, publisher:cfets, publisher:ecb, publisher:hkex, publisher:nbs, publisher:nra, publisher:official-statistical-publications, publisher:pboc, publisher:safeLicense / provider terms: MIT for Palimpsest synthesis; mixed upstream rights retainedLocal public source receiptSource statement: Palimpsest public aggregate economic readings and bitemporal observation ledger |
| contextPRIMARY_SOURCE | Primary-document capture and parsing coverageevidence-primary-document-coverage · pipeline:primary-document-receiptsprimary-documents-latest.json · sha256 f46c6e5a21f8fc4f12d40f01788a6faf82442712c365ed0758ff626133864302 |
13 unparsed-document-records; denominator: 13 document records | 12 Aug 2026 · 11:09 UTC | The index records retrieval metadata for 14 registered sources; captured documents marked not_parsed do not provide normalized observations for synthesis.Open redacted evidence capsule (addressed by original input hash) No additional attribution flag in the mesh.Redistribution: OPEN · Reuse: derived_only · Training: prohibitedProvider(s): NBS, PBOC, GACC, MOT, State Post Bureau, NEA, IMF PortWatch, Copernicus, NASA, HKEX, SSE, SZSE, World BankUpstream lineage: publisher:copernicus, publisher:gacc, publisher:hkex, publisher:imf-portwatch, publisher:mot, publisher:nasa, publisher:nbs, publisher:nea, publisher:pboc, publisher:sse, publisher:state-post-bureau, publisher:szse, publisher:world-bankLicense / provider terms: MIT for Palimpsest receipts; publisher rights and terms apply to retained source bytesLocal public source receipt |
Adversarial reading
Countercases, limitations and falsifiers
These records are part of the report, not caveats hidden after the conclusion.
Countercases
- Several live series and independent source groups already exist in the economic pulse.
- countercase id
- countercase-live-series
- disposition
- Retained; partial coverage does not cure failed desk breadth and historical-baseline gates.
Evidence: evidence-economic-readiness
- A substantial primary-document archive can look like sufficient evidence by volume alone.
- countercase id
- countercase-document-volume
- disposition
- Rejected as a publication basis because capture state and parsed observation state are distinct.
Evidence: evidence-primary-document-coverage
Limitations
- The divergence baseline contains 1 qualifying months against a minimum of 8.
- consequence
- Historical context remains bounded to the retained qualifying monthly observations.
- limitation id
- limitation-no-broad-baseline
- Current substantive-desk coverage is 3 against a minimum of 5.
- consequence
- Any later synthesis must preserve desk-specific coverage rather than treating the composite as uniformly observed.
- limitation id
- limitation-uneven-desk-coverage
- The primary-document index currently contains 13 records marked not_parsed.
- consequence
- The desk may cite capture coverage but may not infer values from any unparsed record.
- limitation id
- limitation-unparsed-documents
Falsifiers
- The abstention should be retired when the same deterministic build observes every predeclared readiness gate passing.
- falsifier id
- falsifier-readiness-gates
- status
- evidence-needed
Evidence: evidence-economic-readiness, evidence-primary-document-coverage
Hypotheses tested
- The predeclared public-evidence gates support beginning a bounded synthesis of China's economic direction.
- disposition
- abstained
- falsifier ids
- ["falsifier-readiness-gates"]
- hypothesis id
- hypothesis-economic-direction
Evidence: evidence-economic-readiness, evidence-primary-document-coverage
Evaluation receipt
Why this became AbstentionReport
The report type is the result of declared deterministic checks. Passing a gate does not imply human reporting occurred.
- citation coverage
- 1.0
- evaluated at
- 2026-08-24T15:58:52Z
- failed gate ids
- ["substantive-desks", "baseline-months", "parsed-primary-observations"]
- independent group ids
- ["pipeline:economic-pulse", "pipeline:primary-document-receipts"]
- minimum independent groups
- 2
- observed independent groups
- 2
- publishable
- no
- status
- failed
| Gate | Result | Observed / required | Receipt detail |
|---|---|---|---|
Every analytical sentence has exact evidence IDssentence-citations | yes | 3 / 3 | Three of three abstention-explanation sentences have non-empty citations. |
Substantive desks with at least one current metricsubstantive-desks | no | 3 / 5 | Copied from the validated economic-pulse readiness receipt. |
Prior monthly observations in the divergence baselinebaseline-months | no | 1 / 8 | Copied from the validated economic-pulse readiness receipt. |
Captured primary documents are normalized into observationsparsed-primary-observations | no | 0 / 13 | Metadata-only capture is valuable provenance, but it does not authorize an economic-state claim. |
Independent evidence systems supporting the readiness assessmentindependent-groups | yes | 2 / 2 | The economic-pulse gate ledger and primary-document receipt index remain separate pipeline records. |
Countercases, limitations and falsifiers are explicitadversarial-review | yes | 3 / 3 | The abstention still publishes its adversarial-review surfaces. |
Reproducibility
Methodology
- Hash the exact four public input files and validate their declared schemas.
- reproducible
- yes
- step id
- method-pin-inputs
- Read, without overriding, the economic pulse's predeclared readiness receipt.
- reproducible
- yes
- step id
- method-read-readiness
- Keep primary-document capture receipts separate from normalized economic observations.
- reproducible
- yes
- step id
- method-separate-capture
- Emit an AbstentionReport whenever any substantive publication gate fails.
- reproducible
- yes
- step id
- method-abstain
Correction and revision history
Current head and preserved revisions
The mutable report JSON points at the current case; this revision stays addressable even after a correction.
- Correction status
- none
- Last corrected
- No material correction recorded
- Policy
- A changed input receipt creates a new immutable revision; material errors are named in this history.
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Initial deterministic revision for this exact cited input set.
- Revision
machinev-cd0203a3bfb3f087fd54479a- Change type
- initial-publication
- Published
- 12 Aug 2026 · 16:51 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-201dcc5ef2c59301331fe8f5- Change type
- data-refresh
- Published
- 12 Aug 2026 · 18:07 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-6c0def3931618ac5e81cc891- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 12 Aug 2026 · 18:49 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-30bf7c4102f03b86327cd8f7- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 12 Aug 2026 · 19:56 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-f5cd61096d3db0d9a209cd95- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 13 Aug 2026 · 05:52 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-858584a7c7e6a66001064259- Change type
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- 13 Aug 2026 · 08:12 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-4a22068cfbf1db05b6dcb413- Change type
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- 13 Aug 2026 · 11:07 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-743fbcb5de7decf19c8feabe- Change type
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- 13 Aug 2026 · 12:14 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-dc3e192491c64e8dc9b81287- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 13 Aug 2026 · 12:14 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-0c28d499029e3440f49120f6- Change type
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- 13 Aug 2026 · 14:16 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-a8b24d30ff2def20278cce52- Change type
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- 13 Aug 2026 · 15:17 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-546d055cb5d1fb1046350ab2- Change type
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- 13 Aug 2026 · 17:58 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-76a66b549f3ec312e3555e8e- Change type
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- 13 Aug 2026 · 19:46 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-9c8cde32829991fb926750f6- Change type
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- 14 Aug 2026 · 03:57 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-9aeeda4c3a875f26302ede2e- Change type
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- 14 Aug 2026 · 10:39 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-79dd5f2b3d21cf959d21729b- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 14 Aug 2026 · 14:03 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-ac3bbbbd9f2de76a288f3942- Change type
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- 14 Aug 2026 · 14:29 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-f39e538dbe49e98a7280f1df- Change type
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- 14 Aug 2026 · 17:54 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-312cc6a937cdcc140ba925b9- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 14 Aug 2026 · 19:42 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-d5da6f48131a8d67cc007a1d- Change type
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- 15 Aug 2026 · 10:24 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-f89dc929026d772c9e5be2a5- Change type
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- 15 Aug 2026 · 10:27 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-4c7155023072714d56e8764b- Change type
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- 15 Aug 2026 · 13:29 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-86a16210d6d4918aab3a9a8e- Change type
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- 15 Aug 2026 · 17:37 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-4bad8e40d8c5e68632f1fcda- Change type
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- 16 Aug 2026 · 01:24 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-77bd21660fb16047d667e1fe- Change type
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- 16 Aug 2026 · 10:32 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-1ba72ee6f1505253e3f94fb7- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 16 Aug 2026 · 15:33 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-c60e0ef08e2f9264503abb0d- Change type
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- 16 Aug 2026 · 17:38 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-cafc36f1358b97fac0cc7451- Change type
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- 22 Aug 2026 · 07:39 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-4516e6cd7c8e45543579a639- Change type
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- 22 Aug 2026 · 09:47 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-09f523efde7d9cd988b9eef3- Change type
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- 22 Aug 2026 · 10:54 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-8f07c8da8feb0d87d1ca8106- Change type
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- 22 Aug 2026 · 18:34 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-fb338dc44d3160b2f854c66f- Change type
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- 23 Aug 2026 · 01:48 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-2b012f5d4ca3f74b70e5374a- Change type
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- 23 Aug 2026 · 11:31 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-071b275e68717635d3421f5a- Change type
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- 23 Aug 2026 · 18:03 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-a6fe1865d51b5b98c3903736- Change type
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- 23 Aug 2026 · 19:48 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-cbac86054f797ef9ab20e30c- Change type
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- 23 Aug 2026 · 21:43 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-dea95d608c7bec2d91e0236b- Change type
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- 23 Aug 2026 · 22:48 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-5798a42872475295547c0fd6- Change type
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- 24 Aug 2026 · 00:26 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-ac10be39b51469bb550519c5- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 24 Aug 2026 · 02:38 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-f106ac464643841c46f86c2a- Change type
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- 24 Aug 2026 · 03:53 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-2455fa4de92289671142dcb8- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 24 Aug 2026 · 04:44 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-7de3fd70c41d5879a370e158- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 24 Aug 2026 · 05:26 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-41cf1c3f97f23fcdcbe56c3e- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 24 Aug 2026 · 06:38 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-cb690b2872b4fccab51913c8- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 24 Aug 2026 · 08:14 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-372760f214b75c622008577d- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 24 Aug 2026 · 08:33 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-47ce6a1141d3f5836fed9895- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 24 Aug 2026 · 09:04 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-1ea5fe7af1fdd4e0cf3e1390- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 24 Aug 2026 · 09:17 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-53ed9c08a8797c1a1c28e81d- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 24 Aug 2026 · 09:27 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-ecf57e011724869b99229fa5- Change type
- data-refresh
- Published
- 24 Aug 2026 · 10:02 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-ef904afc0920285f27f5d93b- Change type
- data-refresh
- Published
- 24 Aug 2026 · 10:34 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-f06292cfd527a18ffa102ea3- Change type
- data-refresh
- Published
- 24 Aug 2026 · 15:58 UTC
- Current report
- report.json
- Current revision
machinev-f06292cfd527a18ffa102ea3
- Source case
machine-source-5ead2c3baa2e32cc7489
- Source revision
machine-sourcev-7cd46ad39e4e4e8f60c8a0de
Safety boundary
What the machine was not allowed to use
- analysis_mode
- value
- deterministic-machine-analysis
- human_interviews
- value
- none
- individual_allegations
- value
- none
- inferred_motives
- value
- none
- personal_data
- value
- none
- prohibited_interpretations
- value
- ["Do not treat aggregate measurements as claims about identifiable people.", "Do not infer intent, motive, or responsibility from technical correlation.", "Do not describe this output as human reporting or a human interview."]