{"cases":[{"case_id":"machine-case-8f0809ee940d247bacff","claim_blocks":[{"block_id":"network-denominators","citation_ids":["evidence-ooni-gfw","evidence-in-path-interference","evidence-inside-view"],"independence_group_ids":["pipeline:palimpsest-inside-view","publisher:ooni"],"paragraph":"OONI anomaly index reports 58.3 percent across 272,935 completed measurements, OONI in-path middlebox index reports 1.37 percent across 9,283 completed middlebox tests, and Inside-China fixed DNS panel reports 1.0 ratio across 5 qualifying answered measurement domains. The three cited values do not share a population, protocol, test family, denominator, or even a common unit, while measurements with the same independence-group identifier count only once. The cited measurements record observable interference within their named methods, but they cannot be combined into one defensible national filtering percentage.","sentences":[{"citation_ids":["evidence-ooni-gfw","evidence-in-path-interference","evidence-inside-view"],"sentence_id":"network-denominators-sentence-1","text":"OONI anomaly index reports 58.3 percent across 272,935 completed measurements, OONI in-path middlebox index reports 1.37 percent across 9,283 completed middlebox tests, and Inside-China fixed DNS panel reports 1.0 ratio across 5 qualifying answered measurement domains."},{"citation_ids":["evidence-ooni-gfw","evidence-in-path-interference","evidence-inside-view"],"sentence_id":"network-denominators-sentence-2","text":"The three cited values do not share a population, protocol, test family, denominator, or even a common unit, while measurements with the same independence-group identifier count only once."},{"citation_ids":["evidence-ooni-gfw","evidence-inside-view"],"sentence_id":"network-denominators-sentence-3","text":"The cited measurements record observable interference within their named methods, but they cannot be combined into one defensible national filtering percentage."}]},{"block_id":"network-independence","citation_ids":["evidence-ooni-gfw","evidence-inside-view","evidence-in-path-interference"],"independence_group_ids":["pipeline:palimpsest-inside-view","publisher:ooni"],"paragraph":"After lineage de-duplication, the cited record contains two independent groups: pipeline:palimpsest-inside-view and publisher:ooni. The in-path instrument remains useful as a distinct technical view, but it contributes no additional independent group because it reuses OONI measurements.","sentences":[{"citation_ids":["evidence-ooni-gfw","evidence-inside-view"],"sentence_id":"network-independence-sentence-1","text":"After lineage de-duplication, the cited record contains two independent groups: pipeline:palimpsest-inside-view and publisher:ooni."},{"citation_ids":["evidence-ooni-gfw","evidence-in-path-interference"],"sentence_id":"network-independence-sentence-2","text":"The in-path instrument remains useful as a distinct technical view, but it contributes no additional independent group because it reuses OONI measurements."}]}],"corrections":{"history":[{"change_type":"initial-publication","published_at":"2026-08-12T16:51:37Z","revision_id":"machinev-539389b2bf97e09ff5b287b4","summary":"Initial deterministic revision for this exact cited input set."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-12T19:56:12Z","revision_id":"machinev-f22f305f307866121353565d","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-13T05:52:10Z","revision_id":"machinev-06d6d791c63f7ea229f7ef84","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:55Z","revision_id":"machinev-30c6872df9cd8528d793b36a","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-13T14:16:40Z","revision_id":"machinev-82e860199998691e31af4a5c","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-13T19:46:22Z","revision_id":"machinev-64f016a25eafdb288d0bf588","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-14T03:57:20Z","revision_id":"machinev-4922c7c9419e091569d6ceba","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-14T10:39:25Z","revision_id":"machinev-ce72808af0048937fc31b859","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-14T14:03:18Z","revision_id":"machinev-5cef31fa32eca8d7910626af","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-14T19:42:35Z","revision_id":"machinev-ba64b8b909dcc36622f0f2cb","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-15T02:08:32Z","revision_id":"machinev-8412c57fd4f37c224e42ca14","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-15T07:19:36Z","revision_id":"machinev-8003dbc0bd6e678cdb23cb13","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-15T13:04:24Z","revision_id":"machinev-9eb09629e25e643bd095a631","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-15T13:07:01Z","revision_id":"machinev-44601e9340d4588f15e28f48","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-15T13:23:23Z","revision_id":"machinev-8c8cc87127b481248eaf5c4d","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-15T18:52:31Z","revision_id":"machinev-582cc95ef8d64d5c2c3f9fbd","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-15T18:54:59Z","revision_id":"machinev-298ffd57bbecb7d27688e3dd","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-15T19:15:22Z","revision_id":"machinev-35446fd21ec033ee8b41d12e","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-16T02:02:39Z","revision_id":"machinev-b28e6aa25c47f5612499076a","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-16T02:05:12Z","revision_id":"machinev-81baf71220e567baf30e4592","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-16T02:15:58Z","revision_id":"machinev-b4b943680eea4ceba65870b3","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-16T07:19:31Z","revision_id":"machinev-946cdd79759fa7618249bd9d","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-16T13:07:03Z","revision_id":"machinev-28b157779aeaa4371f691b72","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-16T13:09:23Z","revision_id":"machinev-953d4773331b7a8f9faf1192","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-16T13:21:39Z","revision_id":"machinev-0344e55baa57f0159fca4266","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-16T19:07:36Z","revision_id":"machinev-0b8987ea3174dc6590a5dc22","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-17T02:11:10Z","revision_id":"machinev-aa53cf7212a1cd43c583cc06","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-17T07:47:11Z","revision_id":"machinev-ce515daffa912909c9ac6796","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-18T11:54:43Z","revision_id":"machinev-b98fea7f9e5a5a3acf23dafa","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-19T07:32:03Z","revision_id":"machinev-3285ef34c3a1ba3de8223950","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-20T03:58:33Z","revision_id":"machinev-311dc403f9323c1522445054","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-20T07:34:21Z","revision_id":"machinev-42199ebaa27f319f743616a8","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-20T14:52:03Z","revision_id":"machinev-bf3887f602c2c2376f486699","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-22T02:07:11Z","revision_id":"machinev-21011a599b2ad49c5c795c80","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-22T07:39:12Z","revision_id":"machinev-9e4ce82aafbbbd83cf6bdf00","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-22T13:29:19Z","revision_id":"machinev-d9761bab226a0c8288f550c7","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-22T19:02:56Z","revision_id":"machinev-de60edeecde015f1f9b94390","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-23T05:22:07Z","revision_id":"machinev-61826a1941b1b224a85e054d","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-23T08:29:03Z","revision_id":"machinev-0510f900c5d24be817b894aa","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-23T18:03:38Z","revision_id":"machinev-35924b9b522e81fe498a2dfb","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-24T02:38:03Z","revision_id":"machinev-5e1357c794ace1a5f3d423cc","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."}],"last_corrected_at":null,"policy":"A changed input receipt creates a new immutable revision; material errors are named in this history.","status":"none"},"countercases":[{"citation_ids":["evidence-ooni-gfw"],"countercase_id":"countercase-benign-anomaly","disposition":"Retained; the report claims observable interference, not that every anomaly is a confirmed block.","statement":"Some OONI anomalies can arise from endpoint or network failure rather than deliberate filtering."},{"citation_ids":["evidence-inside-view"],"countercase_id":"countercase-panel-selection","disposition":"Retained; the panel ratio is never generalized to all domains or users.","statement":"A fixed panel chosen for censorship sensitivity can saturate even if most domains remain reachable."}],"dek":"Multiple scoped instruments report observable network interference, while their incompatible panels, protocols and denominators rule out one national percentage.","evaluation_receipt":{"citation_coverage":1.0,"evaluated_at":"2026-08-24T02:38:03Z","failed_gate_ids":[],"gates":[{"detail":"5 of 5 analytical sentences have non-empty citation arrays.","gate_id":"sentence-citations","label":"Every analytical sentence has exact evidence IDs","observed":5,"passed":true,"required":5},{"detail":"Rights-ineligible candidates excluded from numeric republication: censored-planet (LINK_ONLY/metadata_only).","gate_id":"numeric-reuse-rights","label":"Every republished numeric value passes redistribution and reuse gates","observed":3,"passed":true,"required":3},{"detail":"OONI and the in-path instrument count once because they share publisher:ooni lineage.","gate_id":"independent-groups","label":"Independent evidence groups after lineage de-duplication","observed":2,"passed":true,"required":2},{"detail":"Freshness comes from the validated evidence mesh, not the machine desk's wall clock.","gate_id":"fresh-evidence","label":"Cited measurements are current under declared source deadlines","observed":3,"passed":true,"required":3},{"detail":"The report includes all three adversarial-review surfaces.","gate_id":"adversarial-review","label":"Countercases, limitations and falsifiers are explicit","observed":3,"passed":true,"required":3}],"independent_group_ids":["pipeline:palimpsest-inside-view","publisher:ooni"],"minimum_independent_groups":2,"observed_independent_groups":2,"publishable":true,"status":"passed"},"evidence":[{"artifact_generated_at":"2026-08-24T02:00:59Z","artifact_id":"ooni-gfw-latest.json","artifact_sha256":"90accfb51b97976a774e922f9874ab3af2d4fe9a81b934354dfa714981bf1009","artifact_url":"https://palimpsest.info/news/analysis/evidence/sha256-90accfb51b97976a774e922f9874ab3af2d4fe9a81b934354dfa714981bf1009.json","denominator":{"label":"completed measurements","value":272935},"evidence_id":"evidence-ooni-gfw","freshness":"fresh","independence_group":"publisher:ooni","integrity":"embedded-receipt-verified","interpretation_limit":"OONI's anomaly index uses completed measurements across several test families; the separate total-measurement count also includes failed attempts. An anomaly is not a confirmed block and the probe/test mix is not China's population.","role":"support","selector":"json-pointer:/gfw_index;denominator-json-pointer:/n_completed_measurements","source_class":"RESEARCH_DATASET","source_id":"ooni-gfw","source_timestamp":"2026-08-24T02:00:59Z","title":"OONI anomaly index","upstream_groups":["publisher:ooni"],"value":58.3,"value_type":"percent"},{"artifact_generated_at":"2026-08-24T02:07:57Z","artifact_id":"in-path-interference-latest.json","artifact_sha256":"b2eba327467c6e780d015440bd7d26a5c5f1814fdb4efade486125003e323592","artifact_url":"https://palimpsest.info/news/analysis/evidence/sha256-b2eba327467c6e780d015440bd7d26a5c5f1814fdb4efade486125003e323592.json","denominator":{"label":"completed middlebox tests","value":9283},"evidence_id":"evidence-in-path-interference","freshness":"fresh","independence_group":"publisher:ooni","integrity":"embedded-receipt-verified","interpretation_limit":"This is derived from OONI measurements and shares the publisher:ooni lineage. Its completed-test denominator and test family differ from the OONI reachability index.","role":"support","selector":"json-pointer:/middlebox_index;denominator-json-pointer:/middlebox_completed_count","source_class":"RESEARCH_DATASET","source_id":"in-path-interference","source_timestamp":"2026-08-24T02:07:57Z","title":"OONI in-path middlebox index","upstream_groups":["publisher:ooni"],"value":1.37,"value_type":"percent"},{"artifact_generated_at":"2026-08-24T02:10:02Z","artifact_id":"inside-view-latest.json","artifact_sha256":"9fe7b2157fc21a8b26214153b614b0c01fe9f8b5e9839f45e753aa6546831291","artifact_url":"https://palimpsest.info/news/analysis/evidence/sha256-9fe7b2157fc21a8b26214153b614b0c01fe9f8b5e9839f45e753aa6546831291.json","denominator":{"label":"qualifying answered measurement domains","value":5},"evidence_id":"evidence-inside-view","freshness":"fresh","independence_group":"pipeline:palimpsest-inside-view","integrity":"embedded-receipt-verified","interpretation_limit":"The ratio is for a fixed, deliberately censorship-sensitive domain panel and consented cloud probes; it is not a representative domain or user sample.","role":"support","selector":"json-pointer:/block_rate;denominator-json-pointer:/n_censored_answered","source_class":"RESEARCH_DATASET","source_id":"inside-view","source_timestamp":"2026-08-24T02:10:02Z","title":"Inside-China fixed DNS panel","upstream_groups":["publisher:globalping","publisher:team-cymru"],"value":1.0,"value_type":"ratio"}],"falsifiers":[{"citation_ids":["evidence-ooni-gfw","evidence-inside-view"],"falsifier_id":"falsifier-control-convergence","statement":"The observable-interference finding would weaken if independently operated China and control vantages converged within instrument error across repeated windows.","status":"not-triggered","test":"Repeat predeclared protocols over multiple windows and compare China/control distributions with retained raw denominators."},{"citation_ids":["evidence-ooni-gfw","evidence-in-path-interference","evidence-inside-view"],"falsifier_id":"falsifier-common-denominator","statement":"A national-rate estimate would become testable only after a representative sampling frame and common outcome definition exist.","status":"evidence-needed","test":"Publish the sampling frame, inclusion probabilities, shared protocol, nonresponse accounting and uncertainty interval before estimating a population rate."}],"hypotheses":[{"citation_ids":["evidence-ooni-gfw","evidence-inside-view"],"disposition":"supported","falsifier_ids":["falsifier-control-convergence"],"hypothesis_id":"hypothesis-observable-interference","statement":"Network interference affecting China-facing tests is observable across independently produced measurement methods."},{"citation_ids":["evidence-ooni-gfw","evidence-in-path-interference","evidence-inside-view"],"disposition":"rejected","falsifier_ids":["falsifier-common-denominator"],"hypothesis_id":"hypothesis-single-national-rate","statement":"The 3 headline values estimate one common national filtering rate."}],"limitations":[{"consequence":"No weighted average or single national percentage is calculated.","limitation_id":"limitation-incompatible-denominators","statement":"The instruments observe different test populations with different denominators and units."},{"consequence":"Findings are bounded to the named instruments and collection windows.","limitation_id":"limitation-vantage-coverage","statement":"Probe, resolver, domain and remote-vantage coverage is not a probability sample of China's people or networks."},{"consequence":"They count as one independent group at the publication gate.","limitation_id":"limitation-shared-lineage","statement":"OONI reachability and in-path metrics reuse the same publisher lineage."},{"consequence":"An available source is not republished or counted when its current contract permits metadata-only reuse.","limitation_id":"limitation-rights-gated-candidate","statement":"Rights-ineligible candidates excluded from numeric republication: censored-planet (LINK_ONLY/metadata_only)."}],"methodology":[{"description":"Hash the exact four public input files and validate their declared schemas.","reproducible":true,"step_id":"method-pin-inputs"},{"description":"Resolve predeclared network values and denominators against JSON pointers in their exact raw artifact bytes.","reproducible":true,"step_id":"method-bind-evidence"},{"description":"Republish and count only values whose mesh resource permits derived or full-text reuse with open or attribution-required redistribution.","reproducible":true,"step_id":"method-gate-rights"},{"description":"Resolve independence groups through the evidence mesh before counting corroboration.","reproducible":true,"step_id":"method-deduplicate-lineage"},{"description":"Require complete sentence citations, fresh evidence, independent groups and adversarial review.","reproducible":true,"step_id":"method-gate-publication"}],"profile":"automated_evidence_analysis","published_at":"2026-08-12T16:51:37Z","report_type":"AnalysisReport","revision_id":"machinev-5e1357c794ace1a5f3d423cc","safety":{"analysis_mode":"deterministic-machine-analysis","human_interviews":"none","individual_allegations":"none","inferred_motives":"none","personal_data":"none","prohibited_interpretations":["Do not treat aggregate measurements as claims about identifiable people.","Do not infer intent, motive, or responsibility from technical correlation.","Do not describe this output as human reporting or a human interview."]},"slug":"china-network-filtering-has-no-honest-single-rate","source_case_id":"machine-source-80b1b871bed35fc29d24","source_revision_id":"machine-sourcev-bd7a32196defb24a5247847f","status":"published","status_reason":"Published because citations are complete, all 3 republished measurements are fresh and rights-eligible, and 2 lineage-independent groups meet the configured minimum of 2.","title":"China's network filtering has no honest single rate","updated_at":"2026-08-24T02:38:03Z","url":"/news/analysis/china-network-filtering-has-no-honest-single-rate/"},{"case_id":"machine-case-b3cb3c170670d0f9759c","claim_blocks":[{"block_id":"economic-readiness","citation_ids":["evidence-economic-readiness","evidence-primary-document-coverage"],"independence_group_ids":["pipeline:economic-pulse","pipeline:primary-document-receipts"],"paragraph":"The public economic pulse is warming_up and fails its substantive-desk gate at 3 of 5 and its baseline-history gate at 1 of 8 months. The primary-document index retains 13 document records, but 13 are marked not_parsed, so capture receipts cannot substitute for normalized economic observations. The machine desk therefore abstains from a broad direction-of-economy synthesis until the declared coverage, history and parsing gates pass.","sentences":[{"citation_ids":["evidence-economic-readiness"],"sentence_id":"economic-readiness-sentence-1","text":"The public economic pulse is warming_up and fails its substantive-desk gate at 3 of 5 and its baseline-history gate at 1 of 8 months."},{"citation_ids":["evidence-primary-document-coverage"],"sentence_id":"economic-readiness-sentence-2","text":"The primary-document index retains 13 document records, but 13 are marked not_parsed, so capture receipts cannot substitute for normalized economic observations."},{"citation_ids":["evidence-economic-readiness","evidence-primary-document-coverage"],"sentence_id":"economic-readiness-sentence-3","text":"The machine desk therefore abstains from a broad direction-of-economy synthesis until the declared coverage, history and parsing gates pass."}]}],"corrections":{"history":[{"change_type":"initial-publication","published_at":"2026-08-12T16:51:37Z","revision_id":"machinev-cd0203a3bfb3f087fd54479a","summary":"Initial deterministic revision for this exact cited input set."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-12T18:07:56Z","revision_id":"machinev-201dcc5ef2c59301331fe8f5","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-12T18:49:40Z","revision_id":"machinev-6c0def3931618ac5e81cc891","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-12T19:56:12Z","revision_id":"machinev-30bf7c4102f03b86327cd8f7","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-13T05:52:10Z","revision_id":"machinev-f5cd61096d3db0d9a209cd95","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:55Z","revision_id":"machinev-858584a7c7e6a66001064259","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-13T11:07:05Z","revision_id":"machinev-4a22068cfbf1db05b6dcb413","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-13T12:14:07Z","revision_id":"machinev-743fbcb5de7decf19c8feabe","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-13T12:14:07Z","revision_id":"machinev-dc3e192491c64e8dc9b81287","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-13T14:16:40Z","revision_id":"machinev-0c28d499029e3440f49120f6","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-13T15:17:36Z","revision_id":"machinev-a8b24d30ff2def20278cce52","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-13T17:58:28Z","revision_id":"machinev-546d055cb5d1fb1046350ab2","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-13T19:46:22Z","revision_id":"machinev-76a66b549f3ec312e3555e8e","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-14T03:57:20Z","revision_id":"machinev-9c8cde32829991fb926750f6","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-14T10:39:25Z","revision_id":"machinev-9aeeda4c3a875f26302ede2e","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-14T14:03:18Z","revision_id":"machinev-79dd5f2b3d21cf959d21729b","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-14T14:29:50Z","revision_id":"machinev-ac3bbbbd9f2de76a288f3942","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-14T17:54:45Z","revision_id":"machinev-f39e538dbe49e98a7280f1df","summary":"Deterministic 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changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-15T17:37:43Z","revision_id":"machinev-86a16210d6d4918aab3a9a8e","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-16T01:24:20Z","revision_id":"machinev-4bad8e40d8c5e68632f1fcda","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-16T10:32:35Z","revision_id":"machinev-77bd21660fb16047d667e1fe","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-16T15:33:18Z","revision_id":"machinev-1ba72ee6f1505253e3f94fb7","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-16T17:38:37Z","revision_id":"machinev-c60e0ef08e2f9264503abb0d","summary":"Deterministic 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refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-23T22:48:32Z","revision_id":"machinev-dea95d608c7bec2d91e0236b","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-24T00:26:27Z","revision_id":"machinev-5798a42872475295547c0fd6","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-24T02:38:03Z","revision_id":"machinev-ac10be39b51469bb550519c5","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-24T03:53:57Z","revision_id":"machinev-f106ac464643841c46f86c2a","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state 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refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-24T09:04:14Z","revision_id":"machinev-47ce6a1141d3f5836fed9895","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-24T09:17:49Z","revision_id":"machinev-1ea5fe7af1fdd4e0cf3e1390","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-24T09:27:37Z","revision_id":"machinev-53ed9c08a8797c1a1c28e81d","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-24T10:02:33Z","revision_id":"machinev-ecf57e011724869b99229fa5","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."},{"change_type":"data-refresh","published_at":"2026-08-24T10:34:36Z","revision_id":"machinev-ef904afc0920285f27f5d93b","summary":"Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."}],"last_corrected_at":null,"policy":"A changed input receipt creates a new immutable revision; material errors are named in this history.","status":"none"},"countercases":[{"citation_ids":["evidence-economic-readiness"],"countercase_id":"countercase-live-series","disposition":"Retained; partial coverage does not cure failed desk breadth and historical-baseline gates.","statement":"Several live series and independent source groups already exist in the economic pulse."},{"citation_ids":["evidence-primary-document-coverage"],"countercase_id":"countercase-document-volume","disposition":"Rejected as a publication basis because capture state and parsed observation state are distinct.","statement":"A substantial primary-document archive can look like sufficient evidence by 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observation.","role":"support","selector":"readiness","source_class":"DERIVED_ANALYSIS","source_id":"china-economic-pulse","source_timestamp":"2026-08-24T10:34:36Z","title":"Economic pulse publication gates","upstream_groups":["cfets_benchmarks","external_fx_reference","hkex_market_flows"],"value":"warming_up","value_type":"publication-readiness-state"},{"artifact_generated_at":"2026-08-12T11:09:06Z","artifact_id":"primary-documents-latest.json","artifact_sha256":"f46c6e5a21f8fc4f12d40f01788a6faf82442712c365ed0758ff626133864302","artifact_url":"https://palimpsest.info/news/analysis/evidence/sha256-f46c6e5a21f8fc4f12d40f01788a6faf82442712c365ed0758ff626133864302.json","denominator":{"label":"document records","value":13},"evidence_id":"evidence-primary-document-coverage","freshness":"current","independence_group":"pipeline:primary-document-receipts","integrity":"exact-input-bytes-verified","interpretation_limit":"The index records retrieval metadata for 14 registered sources; captured documents marked not_parsed do not provide normalized observations for synthesis.","role":"context","selector":"coverage, documents[*].observation_state","source_class":"PRIMARY_SOURCE","source_id":"primary-documents","source_timestamp":"2026-08-12T11:09:06Z","title":"Primary-document capture and parsing coverage","upstream_groups":["hkex-listed-company-disclosures","imf-portwatch-ais","mot-transport-statistics","nbs-housing-prices","nbs-official-statistics","nea-energy-statistics","pboc-credit-statistics","sentinel5p-atmosphere","spb-postal-statistics","sse-listed-company-disclosures","szse-listed-company-disclosures","viirs-radiance","world-bank-enterprise-survey"],"value":13,"value_type":"unparsed-document-records"}],"falsifiers":[{"citation_ids":["evidence-economic-readiness","evidence-primary-document-coverage"],"falsifier_id":"falsifier-readiness-gates","statement":"The abstention should be retired when the same deterministic build observes every predeclared readiness gate 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substantive-desk coverage is 3 against a minimum of 5."},{"consequence":"The desk may cite capture coverage but may not infer values from any unparsed record.","limitation_id":"limitation-unparsed-documents","statement":"The primary-document index currently contains 13 records marked not_parsed."}],"methodology":[{"description":"Hash the exact four public input files and validate their declared schemas.","reproducible":true,"step_id":"method-pin-inputs"},{"description":"Read, without overriding, the economic pulse's predeclared readiness receipt.","reproducible":true,"step_id":"method-read-readiness"},{"description":"Keep primary-document capture receipts separate from normalized economic observations.","reproducible":true,"step_id":"method-separate-capture"},{"description":"Emit an AbstentionReport whenever any substantive publication gate fails.","reproducible":true,"step_id":"method-abstain"}],"profile":"machine_brief","published_at":"2026-08-12T16:51:37Z","report_type":"AbstentionReport","revision_id":"machinev-ef904afc0920285f27f5d93b","safety":{"analysis_mode":"deterministic-machine-analysis","human_interviews":"none","individual_allegations":"none","inferred_motives":"none","personal_data":"none","prohibited_interpretations":["Do not treat aggregate measurements as claims about identifiable people.","Do not infer intent, motive, or responsibility from technical correlation.","Do not describe this output as human reporting or a human interview."]},"slug":"china-economic-evidence-readiness","source_case_id":"machine-source-5ead2c3baa2e32cc7489","source_revision_id":"machine-sourcev-19d0ac26156098d8cb38f841","status":"abstained","status_reason":"Abstained because these predeclared evidence-readiness gates failed: substantive-desks, baseline-months, and parsed-primary-observations.","title":"Is Palimpsest ready to describe China's economic direction?","updated_at":"2026-08-24T10:34:36Z","url":"/news/analysis/china-economic-evidence-readiness/"}],"desk_id":"palimpsest-machine-investigations","generated_at":"2026-08-24T10:34:36Z","input_receipts":[{"bytes":206012,"filename":"evidence-mesh-latest.json","generated_at":"2026-08-24T10:34:36Z","input_id":"evidence-mesh","public_url":"https://palimpsest.info/readings/evidence-mesh-latest.json","schema_version":"palimpsest-evidence-mesh.v1","sha256":"20e1057dc461db2b8e66bf54a7d303db4b1f4f4ab129c010a77851a9b0ae9ec2","validation":"verified"},{"bytes":681789,"filename":"osint-china-latest.json","generated_at":"2026-08-24T10:34:36Z","input_id":"osint-china","public_url":"https://palimpsest.info/readings/osint-china-latest.json","schema_version":"osint-china.v1","sha256":"4254f6bbae51fc134b5c2a314c0c8c8184c2a28dc4c968b8ff7c87b2a2c6d9ba","validation":"verified"},{"bytes":71109,"filename":"china-economic-pulse-latest.json","generated_at":"2026-08-24T10:34:36Z","input_id":"economic-pulse","public_url":"https://palimpsest.info/readings/china-economic-pulse-latest.json","schema_version":"palimpsest-economic-pulse.v1","sha256":"587adb91949526680542c14105f9fe5e108e1ad112db1e710a4810c8b08c452d","validation":"verified"},{"bytes":35789,"filename":"primary-documents-latest.json","generated_at":"2026-08-12T11:09:06Z","input_id":"primary-documents","public_url":"https://palimpsest.info/readings/primary-documents-latest.json","schema_version":"palimpsest-primary-documents.v1","sha256":"f46c6e5a21f8fc4f12d40f01788a6faf82442712c365ed0758ff626133864302","validation":"verified"}],"method":"Deterministic, no-network machine analysis over exact published bytes; every sentence is bound to evidence IDs, source lineage is de-duplicated before the publication gate, and failed gates produce an abstention report. No human interview or generative model is used.","n_cases":2,"publication_profiles":["machine_brief","automated_evidence_analysis"],"reproducibility_receipt":{"algorithm":"sha256","builder":"core.machine_investigations.v1","case_set_sha256":"e2631f08d72ce97766450774f3ba2c16b3cd7ba773f32c0fd8de11919dd805f1","config_sha256":"73a1255fb31f75bd81fc20b19b82de2a617424288707f55f0af5fadfc2ba92c6","input_set_sha256":"90827111f9fbecdcca2d393b75d9b2702522f14185b007365bba4625092f6d26"},"schema_version":"palimpsest-machine-investigations.v1","scope":"Two predeclared China cases: incompatible network-filtering denominators and the readiness of public economic evidence for a broad state synthesis.","source":"Palimpsest public evidence mesh, OSINT-China roll-up, economic pulse and primary-document receipt index"}