{
  "case_id": "machine-case-b3cb3c170670d0f9759c",
  "claim_blocks": [
    {
      "block_id": "economic-readiness",
      "citation_ids": [
        "evidence-economic-readiness",
        "evidence-primary-document-coverage"
      ],
      "independence_group_ids": [
        "pipeline:economic-pulse",
        "pipeline:primary-document-receipts"
      ],
      "paragraph": "The public economic pulse is warming_up and fails its substantive-desk gate at 3 of 5 and its baseline-history gate at 1 of 8 months. The primary-document index retains 13 document records, but 13 are marked not_parsed, so capture receipts cannot substitute for normalized economic observations. The machine desk therefore abstains from a broad direction-of-economy synthesis until the declared coverage, history and parsing gates pass.",
      "sentences": [
        {
          "citation_ids": [
            "evidence-economic-readiness"
          ],
          "sentence_id": "economic-readiness-sentence-1",
          "text": "The public economic pulse is warming_up and fails its substantive-desk gate at 3 of 5 and its baseline-history gate at 1 of 8 months."
        },
        {
          "citation_ids": [
            "evidence-primary-document-coverage"
          ],
          "sentence_id": "economic-readiness-sentence-2",
          "text": "The primary-document index retains 13 document records, but 13 are marked not_parsed, so capture receipts cannot substitute for normalized economic observations."
        },
        {
          "citation_ids": [
            "evidence-economic-readiness",
            "evidence-primary-document-coverage"
          ],
          "sentence_id": "economic-readiness-sentence-3",
          "text": "The machine desk therefore abstains from a broad direction-of-economy synthesis until the declared coverage, history and parsing gates pass."
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "corrections": {
    "history": [
      {
        "change_type": "initial-publication",
        "published_at": "2026-08-12T16:51:37Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-cd0203a3bfb3f087fd54479a",
        "summary": "Initial deterministic revision for this exact cited input set."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-12T18:07:56Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-201dcc5ef2c59301331fe8f5",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-12T18:49:40Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-6c0def3931618ac5e81cc891",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-12T19:56:12Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-30bf7c4102f03b86327cd8f7",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-13T05:52:10Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-f5cd61096d3db0d9a209cd95",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-13T08:12:55Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-858584a7c7e6a66001064259",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-13T11:07:05Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-4a22068cfbf1db05b6dcb413",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-13T12:14:07Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-743fbcb5de7decf19c8feabe",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-13T12:14:07Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-dc3e192491c64e8dc9b81287",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-13T14:16:40Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-0c28d499029e3440f49120f6",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-13T15:17:36Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-a8b24d30ff2def20278cce52",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-13T17:58:28Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-546d055cb5d1fb1046350ab2",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-13T19:46:22Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-76a66b549f3ec312e3555e8e",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-14T03:57:20Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-9c8cde32829991fb926750f6",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-14T10:39:25Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-9aeeda4c3a875f26302ede2e",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-14T14:03:18Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-79dd5f2b3d21cf959d21729b",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-14T14:29:50Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-ac3bbbbd9f2de76a288f3942",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-14T17:54:45Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-f39e538dbe49e98a7280f1df",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-14T19:42:35Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-312cc6a937cdcc140ba925b9",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-15T10:24:55Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-d5da6f48131a8d67cc007a1d",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-15T10:27:53Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-f89dc929026d772c9e5be2a5",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-15T13:29:56Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-4c7155023072714d56e8764b",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-15T17:37:43Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-86a16210d6d4918aab3a9a8e",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-16T01:24:20Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-4bad8e40d8c5e68632f1fcda",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-16T10:32:35Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-77bd21660fb16047d667e1fe",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-16T15:33:18Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-1ba72ee6f1505253e3f94fb7",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
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      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-16T17:38:37Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-c60e0ef08e2f9264503abb0d",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
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      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-22T07:39:12Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-cafc36f1358b97fac0cc7451",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
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      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-22T09:47:35Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-4516e6cd7c8e45543579a639",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
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      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-22T10:54:09Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-09f523efde7d9cd988b9eef3",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-22T18:34:29Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-8f07c8da8feb0d87d1ca8106",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-23T01:48:34Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-fb338dc44d3160b2f854c66f",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-23T11:31:34Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-2b012f5d4ca3f74b70e5374a",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
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      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-23T18:03:38Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-071b275e68717635d3421f5a",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
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      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-23T19:48:20Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-a6fe1865d51b5b98c3903736",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-23T21:43:33Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-cbac86054f797ef9ab20e30c",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-23T22:48:32Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-dea95d608c7bec2d91e0236b",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
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      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-24T00:26:27Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-5798a42872475295547c0fd6",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-24T02:38:03Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-ac10be39b51469bb550519c5",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
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      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-24T03:53:57Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-f106ac464643841c46f86c2a",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
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      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-24T04:44:51Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-2455fa4de92289671142dcb8",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-24T05:26:36Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-7de3fd70c41d5879a370e158",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-24T06:38:01Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-41cf1c3f97f23fcdcbe56c3e",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-24T08:14:25Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-cb690b2872b4fccab51913c8",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-24T08:33:15Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-372760f214b75c622008577d",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-24T09:04:14Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-47ce6a1141d3f5836fed9895",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-24T09:17:49Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-1ea5fe7af1fdd4e0cf3e1390",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-24T09:27:37Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-53ed9c08a8797c1a1c28e81d",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-24T10:02:33Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-ecf57e011724869b99229fa5",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-24T10:34:36Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-ef904afc0920285f27f5d93b",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-24T15:58:52Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-f06292cfd527a18ffa102ea3",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      }
    ],
    "last_corrected_at": null,
    "policy": "A changed input receipt creates a new immutable revision; material errors are named in this history.",
    "status": "none"
  },
  "countercases": [
    {
      "citation_ids": [
        "evidence-economic-readiness"
      ],
      "countercase_id": "countercase-live-series",
      "disposition": "Retained; partial coverage does not cure failed desk breadth and historical-baseline gates.",
      "statement": "Several live series and independent source groups already exist in the economic pulse."
    },
    {
      "citation_ids": [
        "evidence-primary-document-coverage"
      ],
      "countercase_id": "countercase-document-volume",
      "disposition": "Rejected as a publication basis because capture state and parsed observation state are distinct.",
      "statement": "A substantial primary-document archive can look like sufficient evidence by volume alone."
    }
  ],
  "dek": "The machine desk tests primary-document parsing, historical depth and cross-desk coverage, then either publishes a bounded readiness analysis or records why it abstained.",
  "evaluation_receipt": {
    "citation_coverage": 1.0,
    "evaluated_at": "2026-08-24T15:58:52Z",
    "failed_gate_ids": [
      "substantive-desks",
      "baseline-months",
      "parsed-primary-observations"
    ],
    "gates": [
      {
        "detail": "Three of three abstention-explanation sentences have non-empty citations.",
        "gate_id": "sentence-citations",
        "label": "Every analytical sentence has exact evidence IDs",
        "observed": 3,
        "passed": true,
        "required": 3
      },
      {
        "detail": "Copied from the validated economic-pulse readiness receipt.",
        "gate_id": "substantive-desks",
        "label": "Substantive desks with at least one current metric",
        "observed": 3,
        "passed": false,
        "required": 5
      },
      {
        "detail": "Copied from the validated economic-pulse readiness receipt.",
        "gate_id": "baseline-months",
        "label": "Prior monthly observations in the divergence baseline",
        "observed": 1,
        "passed": false,
        "required": 8
      },
      {
        "detail": "Metadata-only capture is valuable provenance, but it does not authorize an economic-state claim.",
        "gate_id": "parsed-primary-observations",
        "label": "Captured primary documents are normalized into observations",
        "observed": 0,
        "passed": false,
        "required": 13
      },
      {
        "detail": "The economic-pulse gate ledger and primary-document receipt index remain separate pipeline records.",
        "gate_id": "independent-groups",
        "label": "Independent evidence systems supporting the readiness assessment",
        "observed": 2,
        "passed": true,
        "required": 2
      },
      {
        "detail": "The abstention still publishes its adversarial-review surfaces.",
        "gate_id": "adversarial-review",
        "label": "Countercases, limitations and falsifiers are explicit",
        "observed": 3,
        "passed": true,
        "required": 3
      }
    ],
    "independent_group_ids": [
      "pipeline:economic-pulse",
      "pipeline:primary-document-receipts"
    ],
    "minimum_independent_groups": 2,
    "observed_independent_groups": 2,
    "publishable": false,
    "status": "failed"
  },
  "evidence": [
    {
      "artifact_generated_at": "2026-08-24T15:58:52Z",
      "artifact_id": "china-economic-pulse-latest.json",
      "artifact_sha256": "be61a68e9f1f18894aec8c6cc1f53f46a3d4e8175bcb218072dc4ee2b2580bad",
      "artifact_url": "https://palimpsest.info/news/analysis/evidence/sha256-be61a68e9f1f18894aec8c6cc1f53f46a3d4e8175bcb218072dc4ee2b2580bad.json",
      "denominator": {
        "label": "publication gates",
        "value": 4
      },
      "evidence_id": "evidence-economic-readiness",
      "freshness": "current",
      "independence_group": "pipeline:economic-pulse",
      "integrity": "exact-input-bytes-verified",
      "interpretation_limit": "A readiness receipt evaluates whether a synthesis can publish; it is not itself an economic observation.",
      "role": "support",
      "selector": "readiness",
      "source_class": "DERIVED_ANALYSIS",
      "source_id": "china-economic-pulse",
      "source_timestamp": "2026-08-24T15:58:52Z",
      "title": "Economic pulse publication gates",
      "upstream_groups": [
        "cfets_benchmarks",
        "external_fx_reference",
        "hkex_market_flows"
      ],
      "value": "warming_up",
      "value_type": "publication-readiness-state"
    },
    {
      "artifact_generated_at": "2026-08-12T11:09:06Z",
      "artifact_id": "primary-documents-latest.json",
      "artifact_sha256": "f46c6e5a21f8fc4f12d40f01788a6faf82442712c365ed0758ff626133864302",
      "artifact_url": "https://palimpsest.info/news/analysis/evidence/sha256-f46c6e5a21f8fc4f12d40f01788a6faf82442712c365ed0758ff626133864302.json",
      "denominator": {
        "label": "document records",
        "value": 13
      },
      "evidence_id": "evidence-primary-document-coverage",
      "freshness": "current",
      "independence_group": "pipeline:primary-document-receipts",
      "integrity": "exact-input-bytes-verified",
      "interpretation_limit": "The index records retrieval metadata for 14 registered sources; captured documents marked not_parsed do not provide normalized observations for synthesis.",
      "role": "context",
      "selector": "coverage, documents[*].observation_state",
      "source_class": "PRIMARY_SOURCE",
      "source_id": "primary-documents",
      "source_timestamp": "2026-08-12T11:09:06Z",
      "title": "Primary-document capture and parsing coverage",
      "upstream_groups": [
        "hkex-listed-company-disclosures",
        "imf-portwatch-ais",
        "mot-transport-statistics",
        "nbs-housing-prices",
        "nbs-official-statistics",
        "nea-energy-statistics",
        "pboc-credit-statistics",
        "sentinel5p-atmosphere",
        "spb-postal-statistics",
        "sse-listed-company-disclosures",
        "szse-listed-company-disclosures",
        "viirs-radiance",
        "world-bank-enterprise-survey"
      ],
      "value": 13,
      "value_type": "unparsed-document-records"
    }
  ],
  "falsifiers": [
    {
      "citation_ids": [
        "evidence-economic-readiness",
        "evidence-primary-document-coverage"
      ],
      "falsifier_id": "falsifier-readiness-gates",
      "statement": "The abstention should be retired when the same deterministic build observes every predeclared readiness gate passing.",
      "status": "evidence-needed",
      "test": "Rebuild after normalized observations provide at least five substantive desks and eight qualifying baseline months, then re-evaluate all gates."
    }
  ],
  "hypotheses": [
    {
      "citation_ids": [
        "evidence-economic-readiness",
        "evidence-primary-document-coverage"
      ],
      "disposition": "abstained",
      "falsifier_ids": [
        "falsifier-readiness-gates"
      ],
      "hypothesis_id": "hypothesis-economic-direction",
      "statement": "The predeclared public-evidence gates support beginning a bounded synthesis of China's economic direction."
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    {
      "consequence": "Historical context remains bounded to the retained qualifying monthly observations.",
      "limitation_id": "limitation-no-broad-baseline",
      "statement": "The divergence baseline contains 1 qualifying months against a minimum of 8."
    },
    {
      "consequence": "Any later synthesis must preserve desk-specific coverage rather than treating the composite as uniformly observed.",
      "limitation_id": "limitation-uneven-desk-coverage",
      "statement": "Current substantive-desk coverage is 3 against a minimum of 5."
    },
    {
      "consequence": "The desk may cite capture coverage but may not infer values from any unparsed record.",
      "limitation_id": "limitation-unparsed-documents",
      "statement": "The primary-document index currently contains 13 records marked not_parsed."
    }
  ],
  "methodology": [
    {
      "description": "Hash the exact four public input files and validate their declared schemas.",
      "reproducible": true,
      "step_id": "method-pin-inputs"
    },
    {
      "description": "Read, without overriding, the economic pulse's predeclared readiness receipt.",
      "reproducible": true,
      "step_id": "method-read-readiness"
    },
    {
      "description": "Keep primary-document capture receipts separate from normalized economic observations.",
      "reproducible": true,
      "step_id": "method-separate-capture"
    },
    {
      "description": "Emit an AbstentionReport whenever any substantive publication gate fails.",
      "reproducible": true,
      "step_id": "method-abstain"
    }
  ],
  "profile": "machine_brief",
  "published_at": "2026-08-12T16:51:37Z",
  "report_type": "AbstentionReport",
  "revision_id": "machinev-f06292cfd527a18ffa102ea3",
  "safety": {
    "analysis_mode": "deterministic-machine-analysis",
    "human_interviews": "none",
    "individual_allegations": "none",
    "inferred_motives": "none",
    "personal_data": "none",
    "prohibited_interpretations": [
      "Do not treat aggregate measurements as claims about identifiable people.",
      "Do not infer intent, motive, or responsibility from technical correlation.",
      "Do not describe this output as human reporting or a human interview."
    ]
  },
  "slug": "china-economic-evidence-readiness",
  "source_case_id": "machine-source-5ead2c3baa2e32cc7489",
  "source_revision_id": "machine-sourcev-7cd46ad39e4e4e8f60c8a0de",
  "status": "abstained",
  "status_reason": "Abstained because these predeclared evidence-readiness gates failed: substantive-desks, baseline-months, and parsed-primary-observations.",
  "title": "Is Palimpsest ready to describe China's economic direction?",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-24T15:58:52Z",
  "url": "/news/analysis/china-economic-evidence-readiness/"
}