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China / economic observatory / as of 2026-08-23T17:27:00Z

The current read is no broad direction.

Palimpsest abstains from a broad state-of-economy direction: current public coverage is uneven and no validated composite model has crossed the gate.

27 pulse metrics 2259 ledger observations 33 registered source families 7 release monitors inspect index

CFETS money-market ledger

Official prints, sealed as observed

Keyless CFETS chinamoney English-portal benchmarks. Palimpsest records the published number, the trading day, and the collection clock. It does not turn a fixing into a funding-stress call. CFETS publishes on Beijing business days; the observatory restamps this page every hour so age stays visible when the official print has not moved.

FDR007
1.43
%
SHIBOR overnight
1.434
%
USD/CNY parity
6.7817
CNY per USD
Trading day
2026-08-21
Collected
2026-08-23T01:47:39Z
Families reporting
central_parity, repo_fixing, shibor
Ledger
2259 observations · 2026-07-06 to 2026-08-21 · 49 compatibility days

pledged repo

TenorPrintUnit
FDR0011.44%
FDR0071.43%
FDR0141.4%

fixing repo

TenorPrintUnit
FR0011.47%
FR0071.45%
FR0141.45%

SHIBOR

TenorPrintUnit
SHIBOR overnight1.434%
SHIBOR 1W1.4256%
SHIBOR 2W1.42%
SHIBOR 1M1.4173%
SHIBOR 3M1.43%
SHIBOR 6M1.451%
SHIBOR 9M1.47%
SHIBOR 1Y1.48%

FX

TenorPrintUnit
USD/CNY parity6.7817CNY per USD

Scroll horizontally to inspect every retained official print.

Latest retained CFETS vintage per trading day
Period endFDR007FR007SHIBOR overnightSHIBOR 3MUSD/CNY parity
2026-08-211.431.451.4341.436.7817
2026-08-201.381.4251.3841.436.7808
2026-08-191.381.4151.3811.436.7854
2026-08-181.37261.4151.3611.436.7905
2026-08-171.381.421.3621.436.7873
2026-08-141.381.421.3631.436.7878
2026-08-131.41.4251.3671.436.7888
2026-08-121.391.431.37121.436.7882
2026-08-111.391.421.3581.436.79
2026-08-101.41.421.3771.436.7884
2026-08-071.381.411.3611.436.7904
2026-08-061.381.421.3531.436.7895
2026-08-051.371.431.36041.436.7889
2026-08-041.381.431.3661.436.7917
2026-08-031.421.441.4131.436.7898
2026-07-311.451.461.411.436.7894
2026-07-301.451.491.41.436.7892
2026-07-291.51.51.4381.4316.7899
2026-07-281.461.471.4151.436.7928
2026-07-271.42491.441.4181.436.7911
2026-07-241.41.411.38121.4286.7939
2026-07-231.391.421.3651.436.7906
2026-07-221.39351.4251.3731.436.7933
2026-07-211.41.431.3821.436.7917
2026-07-201.431.431.4121.436.7948
2026-07-171.43481.441.39711.436.7934
2026-07-161.4311.441.3891.436.7909
2026-07-151.421.441.39251.436.791
2026-07-141.41.431.3891.4299not available
2026-07-131.3991.4251.3721.429not available
2026-07-101.381.421.36011.4279not available
2026-07-091.381.431.361.429not available
2026-07-081.381.431.36631.4312not available
2026-07-071.381.431.3741.4319not available
2026-07-061.391.42not availablenot availablenot available

china-econ-latest.json · bitemporal ledger · CFETS source record

HKEX Stock Connect

Cross-border turnover, sealed as observed

Keyless HKEX daily statistics. Northbound is turnover only since August 2024; Palimpsest does not estimate a northbound net flow. Southbound net is buy minus sell. These are published prints, not a liquidity-stress call.

Northbound turnover
268.088
CNY billion
Northbound SSE
125.847
CNY billion
Northbound SZSE
142.241
CNY billion
Southbound buy
46.391
HKD billion
Southbound sell
54.021
HKD billion
Southbound net
-7.63
HKD billion
Trading day
2026-08-21
Collected
2026-08-21T14:03:19Z
History
159 retained days
Source
HKEX Stock Connect daily statistics (keyless official prints)

stock-connect-latest.json

Abstention gate

What prevents a composite

Coverage and revision history do not yet support a broad state-of-economy composite.

Pseudo-real-time forecast audit

Backtests published; forecasts withheld

Named-series one-step forecasts only after frozen pseudo-real-time promotion gates pass; otherwise this artifact publishes backtest evidence and abstains.

0 / 3targets pass every frozen promotion gatewarming up

  1. cn.cfets.shibor_on

    SHIBOR overnight — next observed fixing

    warming up
    History
    45 days
    Usable first-release folds
    13
    Revised outcomes
    0
    Source families
    1
    Independent groups
    1
    Champion
    withheld

    9 of 9 promotion gates not met. No forecast is published.

  2. cn.cfets.fdr001

    FDR001 — next observed fixing

    warming up
    History
    46 days
    Usable first-release folds
    13
    Revised outcomes
    0
    Source families
    1
    Independent groups
    1
    Champion
    withheld

    9 of 9 promotion gates not met. No forecast is published.

  3. cn.cfets.usdcny_parity

    USD/CNY central parity — next observed fixing

    warming up
    History
    37 days
    Usable first-release folds
    13
    Revised outcomes
    0
    Source families
    1
    Independent groups
    1
    Champion
    withheld

    9 of 9 promotion gates not met. No forecast is published.

Inspect every fold, miss and failed model → · schema

Evidence loom

Four rails, six desks, gaps left visible

Each filled crossing means the desk contains at least one retained metric on that evidence rail. An open crossing means no such metric is currently published.

Scroll horizontally to inspect every desk.

Published metric coverage for four evidence rails across six economic desks
rail / deskActivityMoney, credit & FXMarkets & capitalTrade, logistics & physical telemetryProperty, labor & demandData integrity
Official releases21 metricsgappresentgappresentgappresent
Market telemetry6 metricsgapgappresentgapgapgap
Physical economy0 metricsgapgapgapgapgapgap
Publication integrity1 metricsgapgapgapgapgappresent

6 desks

Observed evidence before interpretation

Values remain attached to source class, period and status. Open a desk to inspect every retained metric.

activity

Activity

not collected0 metrics

No retained metrics. This is a coverage gap, not a zero.

money-credit-fx

Money, credit & FX

observed19 metrics
Inspect retained metrics
MetricValueStatePeriod end
FDR001 depository-institution repo fixing1.44 %observed2026-08-21
FDR007 depository-institution repo fixing1.43 %observed2026-08-21
FDR014 depository-institution repo fixing1.4 %observed2026-08-21
FR001 repo fixing1.47 %observed2026-08-21
FR007 repo fixing1.45 %observed2026-08-21
FR014 repo fixing1.45 %observed2026-08-21
One-month SHIBOR1.4173 %observed2026-08-21
One-week SHIBOR1.4256 %observed2026-08-21
One-year SHIBOR1.48 %observed2026-08-21
Two-week SHIBOR1.42 %observed2026-08-21
Three-month SHIBOR1.43 %observed2026-08-21
Six-month SHIBOR1.451 %observed2026-08-21
Nine-month SHIBOR1.47 %observed2026-08-21
Overnight SHIBOR1.434 %observed2026-08-21
Official USD/CNY central parity6.7817 CNY per USDobserved2026-08-21
ECB versus Bank of Canada derived-rate difference0.001458 CNY per USDderived2026-08-21
Official fix minus external reference gap-0.9013 percentderived2026-08-21
Official USD/CNY central parity6.7817 CNY per USDobserved2026-08-21
ECB-derived USD/CNY reference6.720574 CNY per USDobserved2026-08-21

markets-capital

Markets & capital

observed6 metrics
Inspect retained metrics
MetricValueStatePeriod end
Northbound SSE turnover125.847 CNY billionobserved2026-08-21
Northbound SZSE turnover142.241 CNY billionobserved2026-08-21
Northbound total turnover268.088 CNY billionobserved2026-08-21
Southbound buy turnover46.391 HKD billionobserved2026-08-21
Southbound sell turnover54.021 HKD billionobserved2026-08-21
Southbound net flow-7.63 HKD billionobserved2026-08-21

trade-logistics-physical

Trade, logistics & physical telemetry

observed1 metrics
Inspect retained metrics
MetricValueStatePeriod end
Outstanding RMB loan growth5.1 percentobserved2026-07-31

property-labor-demand

Property, labor & demand

not collected0 metrics

No retained metrics. This is a coverage gap, not a zero.

data-integrity

Data integrity

observed1 metrics
Inspect retained metrics
MetricValueStatePeriod end
Official publication darkness index0.212 ratioderived2026-08-23

Release docket

7 publication clocks

Age measures publication visibility. It is not a surprise index and not evidence of economic direction.

WatchLatest publicationAgeFreshness
Cfets Benchmarks release age2026-08-210 dayscurrent
Nbs Energy release age2026-08-176 dayscurrent
Nbs Industrial release age2026-08-176 dayscurrent
Nra Rail release age2026-08-185 dayscurrent
Pboc Mb Stats release age2026-07-3123 dayscurrent
Pboc Omo release age2026-08-210 dayscurrent
Safe Settlement release age2026-08-176 dayscurrent

Open the full release docket →

Coverage ledger

12 economic domains

“Adapter ready” means a lawful source route has been designed. It never means the source is currently collected.

Audit all 33 source families →

Access boundary

Acquire the evidence without inventing independence

Distribution, original measurement and a proprietary panel are different things. Palimpsest records the relationship instead of counting every transport as a new source.

Scroll horizontally to compare access and reuse boundaries.

Legitimate access, information independence and reuse boundaries for ChinaData.Live, China Beige Book and Palimpsest
ProductLegitimate accessIndependent information?Boundary
ChinaData.Live API ↗Public catalogue and per-dataset JSON/CSV under its terms; recurring or bulk delivery by agreement.No, when it transports the same official release.Respect rate, source-rights and bulk-use terms ↗
China Beige Book ↗Direct commercial licence with negotiated delivery and derived-output rights.Yes: its value is a proprietary firm network.No respondent data or CBB-branded substitute without a licence; see the source record.
PalimpsestPublic static files, schemas, OpenAPI and read-only MCP.Only where a distinct source family is actually observed.The current ledger is narrow; gaps and withheld forecasts remain visible.