What the record says
Availability. No current finding is published for Forecast ledger because the source status is stale.
This report is scoped to forecast-ledger. It does not merge unlike instruments or infer a cause from co-movement.
How it was measured
strictly prequential (Dawid 1984): each reading is forecast from only its own past, never refit with hindsight. Point forecast = previous value (random walk). Band = adaptive conformal quantile of past absolute one-step changes, updated by alpha_{t+1} = alpha_t + gamma_t*(alpha - err_t) with decaying gamma (ACI, arXiv:2106.00170; decaying steps, arXiv:2402.01139), valid under arbitrary distribution shift. Scored by the Weighted Interval Score (arXiv:2005.12881), a proper rule, against the same forecast using a fixed quantile. Lower WIS is better.
What this cannot establish
- Current finding withheld: freshness deadline has passed
- Calibration describes aggregate historical coverage and does not guarantee that any one next reading falls inside its band.
Palimpsest addition
Instrument brief
availability-brief · Evidence stale
Palimpsest withholds a current finding for forecast-ledger: the source status is stale. This is an availability brief, not a measurement.
Key number
- withheld headline metric · withheld because the source is not live
Current number and denominator
- No current number is published for forecast-ledger because the newsroom status is stale. The retained metric is withheld.
- No current finding is published for Forecast ledger because the source status is stale.
Same-edition board context
- Same-edition elevated layers: none declared. Other live lead or high signal ids: event-flags, ddti, undertext, ooni-gfw, in-path-interference, censored-planet, inside-view, ioda-outages, vantage-fusion, erasure-observatory, wayback, app-storefront, apple-censorship, cny-fix-gap, data-darkness, generative-firewall.
- No editorial_priority or MAD score is treated as a finding on this reading.
What this reading does not show
- Current finding withheld: freshness deadline has passed
- The brief does not assign motive, identify a person, merge unlike denominators, or treat a missing reading as a zero.
- strictly prequential (Dawid 1984): each reading is forecast from only its own past, never refit with hindsight. Point forecast = previous value (random walk). Band = adaptive conformal quantile of past absolute one-step changes, updated by alpha_{t+1} = alpha_t + gamma_t*(alpha - err_t) with decaying gamma (ACI, arXiv:2106.00170; decaying steps, arXiv:2402.01139), valid under arbitrary distribution shift. Scored by the Weighted Interval Score (arXiv:2005.12881), a proper rule, against the same forecast using a fixed quantile. Lower WIS is better.
Elevated peers this edition
event-flags (command), ddti (attention), undertext (attention), ooni-gfw (network), in-path-interference (network), censored-planet (network), inside-view (network), ioda-outages (network), vantage-fusion (network), erasure-observatory (erasure), wayback (erasure), app-storefront (erasure), apple-censorship (erasure), cny-fix-gap (economy), data-darkness (economy), generative-firewall (models)
Counterreadings
- A current or withheld instrument value is not independent corroboration of any publisher article, and it is not a cause.
- Co-movement with another live signal on this edition is layer context, not a shared rate or a coordinated action.
Limitations
- Current finding withheld: freshness deadline has passed
- The companion copies newsroom templates only; it adds no interview, article body, or generative prose.
Analysis instrumentv-dab350b05d45120c0c31d68a · structured assessment · reading companion
Read the evidence
The exact source reading is forecast-ledger-latest.json. The structured version of this dispatch is published beside the article.