Deterministic machine analysis · ANALYSIS REPORT
China's network filtering has no honest single rate
Multiple scoped instruments report observable network interference, while their incompatible panels, protocols and denominators rule out one national percentage.
Current gate result: Published because citations are complete, all 3 republished measurements are fresh and rights-eligible, and 2 lineage-independent groups meet the configured minimum of 2.
DETERMINISTIC MACHINE ANALYSIS · NO HUMAN INTERVIEW. This report uses checked-in aggregate evidence only. It cannot add testimony, observe private conduct or treat missing reporting as confirmation.
Sentence-level provenance
Analysis with citations attached
The paragraph is the published unit; the ledger beneath it shows the exact evidence IDs attached to each sentence and the de-duplicated lineage union for the block.
Claim block 1 · network-denominators
OONI anomaly index reports 58.3 percent across 272,935 completed measurements, OONI in-path middlebox index reports 1.37 percent across 9,283 completed middlebox tests, and Inside-China fixed DNS panel reports 1.0 ratio across 5 qualifying answered measurement domains. The three cited values do not share a population, protocol, test family, denominator, or even a common unit, while measurements with the same independence-group identifier count only once. The cited measurements record observable interference within their named methods, but they cannot be combined into one defensible national filtering percentage.
OONI anomaly index reports 58.3 percent across 272,935 completed measurements, OONI in-path middlebox index reports 1.37 percent across 9,283 completed middlebox tests, and Inside-China fixed DNS panel reports 1.0 ratio across 5 qualifying answered measurement domains.
Sentence 1 citations: evidence-ooni-gfw, evidence-in-path-interference, evidence-inside-view
The three cited values do not share a population, protocol, test family, denominator, or even a common unit, while measurements with the same independence-group identifier count only once.
Sentence 2 citations: evidence-ooni-gfw, evidence-in-path-interference, evidence-inside-view
The cited measurements record observable interference within their named methods, but they cannot be combined into one defensible national filtering percentage.
Sentence 3 citations: evidence-ooni-gfw, evidence-inside-view
Block evidence union: evidence-ooni-gfw, evidence-in-path-interference, evidence-inside-view
Independent lineage groups: pipeline:palimpsest-inside-view, publisher:ooni
Claim block 2 · network-independence
After lineage de-duplication, the cited record contains two independent groups: pipeline:palimpsest-inside-view and publisher:ooni. The in-path instrument remains useful as a distinct technical view, but it contributes no additional independent group because it reuses OONI measurements.
After lineage de-duplication, the cited record contains two independent groups: pipeline:palimpsest-inside-view and publisher:ooni.
Sentence 1 citations: evidence-ooni-gfw, evidence-inside-view
The in-path instrument remains useful as a distinct technical view, but it contributes no additional independent group because it reuses OONI measurements.
Sentence 2 citations: evidence-ooni-gfw, evidence-in-path-interference
Block evidence union: evidence-ooni-gfw, evidence-inside-view, evidence-in-path-interference
Independent lineage groups: pipeline:palimpsest-inside-view, publisher:ooni
Explanatory view
When the evidence arrived—and which sources travel together
- OONI anomaly indexsupport · publisher:ooniInspect receipt
- OONI in-path middlebox indexsupport · publisher:ooniInspect receipt
- Inside-China fixed DNS panelsupport · pipeline:palimpsest-inside-viewInspect receipt
Evidence ledger
Receipts, values, rights and interpretation limits
Each public archive is a redacted aggregate capsule bound to the original input hash. Raw readings, IP-valued answers, contact data and person-level records are not copied into the archive.
| Relation | Evidence / lineage | Value or summary | Observed | Interpretation limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| supportRESEARCH_DATASET | OONI anomaly indexevidence-ooni-gfw · publisher:ooniooni-gfw-latest.json · sha256 90accfb51b97976a774e922f9874ab3af2d4fe9a81b934354dfa714981bf1009 |
58.3 percent; denominator: 272935 completed measurements | 24 Aug 2026 · 02:00 UTC | OONI's anomaly index uses completed measurements across several test families; the separate total-measurement count also includes failed attempts. An anomaly is not a confirmed block and the probe/test mix is not China's population.Open redacted evidence capsule (addressed by original input hash) Attribution required for redistribution.Redistribution: ATTRIBUTION_REQUIRED · Reuse: derived_only · Training: prohibitedProvider(s): OONI (provider terms)Upstream lineage: publisher:ooniLicense / provider terms: CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 source dataLocal public source receipt · Upstream sourceSource statement: OONI aggregation API (api.ooni.io), probe_cc=CN |
| supportRESEARCH_DATASET | OONI in-path middlebox indexevidence-in-path-interference · publisher:ooniin-path-interference-latest.json · sha256 b2eba327467c6e780d015440bd7d26a5c5f1814fdb4efade486125003e323592 |
1.37 percent; denominator: 9283 completed middlebox tests | 24 Aug 2026 · 02:07 UTC | This is derived from OONI measurements and shares the publisher:ooni lineage. Its completed-test denominator and test family differ from the OONI reachability index.Open redacted evidence capsule (addressed by original input hash) Attribution required for redistribution.Redistribution: ATTRIBUTION_REQUIRED · Reuse: derived_only · Training: prohibitedProvider(s): OONI (provider terms)Upstream lineage: publisher:ooniLicense / provider terms: CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 source dataLocal public source receipt · Upstream sourceSource statement: OONI aggregation API (api.ooni.io), probe_cc=CN |
| supportRESEARCH_DATASET | Inside-China fixed DNS panelevidence-inside-view · pipeline:palimpsest-inside-viewinside-view-latest.json · sha256 9fe7b2157fc21a8b26214153b614b0c01fe9f8b5e9839f45e753aa6546831291 |
1.0 ratio; denominator: 5 qualifying answered measurement domains | 24 Aug 2026 · 02:10 UTC | The ratio is for a fixed, deliberately censorship-sensitive domain panel and consented cloud probes; it is not a representative domain or user sample.Open redacted evidence capsule (addressed by original input hash) Attribution required for redistribution.Redistribution: ATTRIBUTION_REQUIRED · Reuse: derived_only · Training: prohibitedProvider(s): Globalping (provider terms), Team Cymru (provider terms)Upstream lineage: publisher:globalping, publisher:team-cymruLicense / provider terms: MIT for Palimpsest output; provider terms applyLocal public source receipt · Upstream sourceSource statement: Globalping (api.globalping.io) volunteer probes inside mainland China |
Adversarial reading
Countercases, limitations and falsifiers
These records are part of the report, not caveats hidden after the conclusion.
Countercases
- Some OONI anomalies can arise from endpoint or network failure rather than deliberate filtering.
- countercase id
- countercase-benign-anomaly
- disposition
- Retained; the report claims observable interference, not that every anomaly is a confirmed block.
Evidence: evidence-ooni-gfw
- A fixed panel chosen for censorship sensitivity can saturate even if most domains remain reachable.
- countercase id
- countercase-panel-selection
- disposition
- Retained; the panel ratio is never generalized to all domains or users.
Evidence: evidence-inside-view
Limitations
- The instruments observe different test populations with different denominators and units.
- consequence
- No weighted average or single national percentage is calculated.
- limitation id
- limitation-incompatible-denominators
- Probe, resolver, domain and remote-vantage coverage is not a probability sample of China's people or networks.
- consequence
- Findings are bounded to the named instruments and collection windows.
- limitation id
- limitation-vantage-coverage
- OONI reachability and in-path metrics reuse the same publisher lineage.
- consequence
- They count as one independent group at the publication gate.
- limitation id
- limitation-shared-lineage
- Rights-ineligible candidates excluded from numeric republication: censored-planet (LINK_ONLY/metadata_only).
- consequence
- An available source is not republished or counted when its current contract permits metadata-only reuse.
- limitation id
- limitation-rights-gated-candidate
Falsifiers
- The observable-interference finding would weaken if independently operated China and control vantages converged within instrument error across repeated windows.
- falsifier id
- falsifier-control-convergence
- status
- not-triggered
Evidence: evidence-ooni-gfw, evidence-inside-view
- A national-rate estimate would become testable only after a representative sampling frame and common outcome definition exist.
- falsifier id
- falsifier-common-denominator
- status
- evidence-needed
Evidence: evidence-ooni-gfw, evidence-in-path-interference, evidence-inside-view
Hypotheses tested
- Network interference affecting China-facing tests is observable across independently produced measurement methods.
- disposition
- supported
- falsifier ids
- ["falsifier-control-convergence"]
- hypothesis id
- hypothesis-observable-interference
Evidence: evidence-ooni-gfw, evidence-inside-view
- The 3 headline values estimate one common national filtering rate.
- disposition
- rejected
- falsifier ids
- ["falsifier-common-denominator"]
- hypothesis id
- hypothesis-single-national-rate
Evidence: evidence-ooni-gfw, evidence-in-path-interference, evidence-inside-view
Evaluation receipt
Why this became AnalysisReport
The report type is the result of declared deterministic checks. Passing a gate does not imply human reporting occurred.
- citation coverage
- 1.0
- evaluated at
- 2026-08-24T02:38:03Z
- failed gate ids
- []
- independent group ids
- ["pipeline:palimpsest-inside-view", "publisher:ooni"]
- minimum independent groups
- 2
- observed independent groups
- 2
- publishable
- yes
- status
- passed
| Gate | Result | Observed / required | Receipt detail |
|---|---|---|---|
Every analytical sentence has exact evidence IDssentence-citations | yes | 5 / 5 | 5 of 5 analytical sentences have non-empty citation arrays. |
Every republished numeric value passes redistribution and reuse gatesnumeric-reuse-rights | yes | 3 / 3 | Rights-ineligible candidates excluded from numeric republication: censored-planet (LINK_ONLY/metadata_only). |
Independent evidence groups after lineage de-duplicationindependent-groups | yes | 2 / 2 | OONI and the in-path instrument count once because they share publisher:ooni lineage. |
Cited measurements are current under declared source deadlinesfresh-evidence | yes | 3 / 3 | Freshness comes from the validated evidence mesh, not the machine desk's wall clock. |
Countercases, limitations and falsifiers are explicitadversarial-review | yes | 3 / 3 | The report includes all three adversarial-review surfaces. |
Reproducibility
Methodology
- Hash the exact four public input files and validate their declared schemas.
- reproducible
- yes
- step id
- method-pin-inputs
- Resolve predeclared network values and denominators against JSON pointers in their exact raw artifact bytes.
- reproducible
- yes
- step id
- method-bind-evidence
- Republish and count only values whose mesh resource permits derived or full-text reuse with open or attribution-required redistribution.
- reproducible
- yes
- step id
- method-gate-rights
- Resolve independence groups through the evidence mesh before counting corroboration.
- reproducible
- yes
- step id
- method-deduplicate-lineage
- Require complete sentence citations, fresh evidence, independent groups and adversarial review.
- reproducible
- yes
- step id
- method-gate-publication
Correction and revision history
Current head and preserved revisions
The mutable report JSON points at the current case; this revision stays addressable even after a correction.
- Correction status
- none
- Last corrected
- No material correction recorded
- Policy
- A changed input receipt creates a new immutable revision; material errors are named in this history.
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Initial deterministic revision for this exact cited input set.
- Revision
machinev-539389b2bf97e09ff5b287b4- Change type
- initial-publication
- Published
- 12 Aug 2026 · 16:51 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-f22f305f307866121353565d- Change type
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- 12 Aug 2026 · 19:56 UTC
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machinev-06d6d791c63f7ea229f7ef84- Change type
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- 13 Aug 2026 · 05:52 UTC
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machinev-30c6872df9cd8528d793b36a- Change type
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machinev-82e860199998691e31af4a5c- Change type
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machinev-4922c7c9419e091569d6ceba- Change type
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machinev-ce72808af0048937fc31b859- Change type
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machinev-8412c57fd4f37c224e42ca14- Change type
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machinev-8003dbc0bd6e678cdb23cb13- Change type
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machinev-9eb09629e25e643bd095a631- Change type
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machinev-44601e9340d4588f15e28f48- Change type
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machinev-8c8cc87127b481248eaf5c4d- Change type
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machinev-582cc95ef8d64d5c2c3f9fbd- Change type
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machinev-298ffd57bbecb7d27688e3dd- Change type
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machinev-35446fd21ec033ee8b41d12e- Change type
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machinev-b28e6aa25c47f5612499076a- Change type
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machinev-81baf71220e567baf30e4592- Change type
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machinev-b4b943680eea4ceba65870b3- Change type
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machinev-946cdd79759fa7618249bd9d- Change type
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machinev-28b157779aeaa4371f691b72- Change type
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machinev-aa53cf7212a1cd43c583cc06- Change type
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machinev-ce515daffa912909c9ac6796- Change type
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-b98fea7f9e5a5a3acf23dafa- Change type
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machinev-3285ef34c3a1ba3de8223950- Change type
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-311dc403f9323c1522445054- Change type
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-42199ebaa27f319f743616a8- Change type
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-bf3887f602c2c2376f486699- Change type
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-21011a599b2ad49c5c795c80- Change type
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-9e4ce82aafbbbd83cf6bdf00- Change type
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-d9761bab226a0c8288f550c7- Change type
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- 22 Aug 2026 · 13:29 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-de60edeecde015f1f9b94390- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 22 Aug 2026 · 19:02 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-61826a1941b1b224a85e054d- Change type
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- 23 Aug 2026 · 05:22 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
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machinev-0510f900c5d24be817b894aa- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 23 Aug 2026 · 08:29 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-35924b9b522e81fe498a2dfb- Change type
- data-refresh
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- 23 Aug 2026 · 18:03 UTC
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Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
- Revision
machinev-5e1357c794ace1a5f3d423cc- Change type
- data-refresh
- Published
- 24 Aug 2026 · 02:38 UTC
- Current report
- report.json
- Current revision
machinev-5e1357c794ace1a5f3d423cc
- Source case
machine-source-80b1b871bed35fc29d24
- Source revision
machine-sourcev-bd7a32196defb24a5247847f
Safety boundary
What the machine was not allowed to use
- analysis_mode
- value
- deterministic-machine-analysis
- human_interviews
- value
- none
- individual_allegations
- value
- none
- inferred_motives
- value
- none
- personal_data
- value
- none
- prohibited_interpretations
- value
- ["Do not treat aggregate measurements as claims about identifiable people.", "Do not infer intent, motive, or responsibility from technical correlation.", "Do not describe this output as human reporting or a human interview."]