{
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  "generated_at": "2026-08-24T06:38:00.489133+00:00",
  "template": {
    "id": "weekly-situation-v1",
    "version": 1,
    "ranking_rule": "DDTI threat descending; GDELT, Weibo and GitHub annotate; they never rerank",
    "model_policy": "no model drafts the report or decides sensitivity; frozen templates only",
    "sections": [
      "headline",
      "working_hardest",
      "layer_state",
      "social_differential",
      "campaigns",
      "forecast_skill",
      "abstentions",
      "limitations"
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    "sha256": "bf82970c09174fbae87e6067472d58c9a7d3f7d352456c4cb5af9e9420a39e2b"
  },
  "headline": "218 DDTI terms from 107 CDT observations. 9 of 9 fused layers present. 2 layer(s) elevated (content, network). GFI 25.0 (interval 11.2 to 46.9).",
  "working_hardest": [
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      "term": "Caixin",
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      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/08/translation-you-cant-address-sexual-assault-at-banquets-without-addressing-the-nature-of-power/"
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      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/08/translation-you-cant-address-sexual-assault-at-banquets-without-addressing-the-nature-of-power/"
    },
    {
      "term": "abuse of power",
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      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/08/translation-you-cant-address-sexual-assault-at-banquets-without-addressing-the-nature-of-power/"
    },
    {
      "term": "local officials",
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      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/08/translation-you-cant-address-sexual-assault-at-banquets-without-addressing-the-nature-of-power/"
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    {
      "term": "sexual harassment",
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      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/08/translation-you-cant-address-sexual-assault-at-banquets-without-addressing-the-nature-of-power/"
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    {
      "term": "singapore",
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      "threat": 1.6396,
      "attention": 0.9369,
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      "is_new": true,
      "gdelt_label": "unknown",
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      "layers": [
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      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/08/translation-you-cant-address-sexual-assault-at-banquets-without-addressing-the-nature-of-power/"
    },
    {
      "term": "censorship",
      "domain": "INFORMATION",
      "threat": 1.3059,
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      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/08/translation-you-cant-address-sexual-assault-at-banquets-without-addressing-the-nature-of-power/"
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    {
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      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/08/translation-you-cant-address-sexual-assault-at-banquets-without-addressing-the-nature-of-power/"
    },
    {
      "term": "中国裁判文书网",
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      "attention": 0.6745,
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      "weibo_regime": "suppressed_invisible",
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      "n_layers": 3,
      "sample_url": null
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    {
      "term": "Chinese opera",
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      "threat": 0.4407,
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      "is_new": true,
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      "weibo_regime": null,
      "layers": [
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      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/08/netizen-voices-on-the-investigation-of-comedian-guo-degang-for-riffing-on-a-red-tune-the-cultural-revolution-never-ended/"
    },
    {
      "term": "Cultural Revolution",
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      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/08/netizen-voices-on-the-investigation-of-comedian-guo-degang-for-riffing-on-a-red-tune-the-cultural-revolution-never-ended/"
    }
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      "generated_at": "2026-08-24T04:07:05.744406+00:00",
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      "generated_at": "2026-08-24T05:55:38Z",
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      "generated_at": "2026-08-24T02:17:50.053556+00:00",
      "sha256": "4f82743337b6cc9387aedd8a2af536719c1db798be9a349b92c39cc09fe84909"
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      "generated_at": "2026-08-24T06:38:00.068780+00:00",
      "sha256": "d88df12f13c3186c723cab50c0e97b23e1863fa87e0917e0a403087ea02dc4b1"
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      "generated_at": "2026-08-23T08:02:43.590725+00:00",
      "sha256": "3daacc7b91b056e31570b5c1250b7472b2d729fcc929b87b9fa50d4b25633618"
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    "forecast": {
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      "source": "forecast_ledger",
      "generated_at": "2026-08-24T06:38:00.231413+00:00",
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    "window_days": [
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    "generated_at": "2026-08-24T05:55:38Z",
    "note": "contained_visible: DDTI term still trends. suppressed_invisible: DDTI term never appears on the public hot-search board."
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    "campaigns": [
      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/08/translation-you-cant-address-sexual-assault-at-banquets-without-addressing-the-nature-of-power/",
        "title": "Translation: “You Can’t Address Sexual Assault at Banquets Without Addressing the Nature of Power”",
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        "terms": [
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        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/08/translation-migrant-worker-jing-shuren-on-trial-after-two-year-detention-for-reposting-unpaid-wage-complaints/",
        "title": "Translation: Migrant Worker Jing Shuren On Trial After Two-Year Detention for Reposting Unpaid Wage Complaints",
        "n_terms": 8,
        "terms": [
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        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/07/translation-euphemism-and-censorship-surround-guangxi-flooding-dam-breach-news/",
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        "title": "Translations: “Sometimes Forgetting Is as Terrible as the Disaster.” Censored Reflections on the Deadly Zhengzhou Floods, Five Years On",
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        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/07/translation-no-scaling-the-great-firewall-in-the-library/",
        "title": "Translation: No Scaling the Great Firewall in the Library",
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        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/08/translation-the-deluge-of-blocked-words-online-why-we-feel-we-cannot-speak-openly/",
        "title": "Translation: The Deluge of Blocked Words Online – Why We Feel We “Cannot Speak Openly”",
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        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/07/amid-hong-kong-book-fair-police-raid-two-more-independent-bookstores-arrest-five-booksellers/",
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      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/08/translation-extreme-security-at-tiananmen-landmark-in-the-maddening-summer-heat/",
        "title": "Translation: “Extreme Security” at Tiananmen Landmark in the Maddening Summer Heat",
        "n_terms": 16,
        "terms": [
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        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/08/translation-ai-has-determined-that-my-press-card-is-a-fake/",
        "title": "Translation: “AI Has Determined That My Press Card Is a Fake”",
        "n_terms": 17,
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        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/07/cdts-404-deleted-content-archive-summary-for-june-2026/",
        "title": "CDT’s “404 Deleted Content Archive” Summary for June 2026",
        "n_terms": 37,
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          "soccer",
          "social media censorship",
          "sports",
          "translation excerpt",
          "transportation",
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          "white-collar workers",
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        "max_threat": 0.2932
      },
      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/08/mathematicians-wang-hong-and-deng-yu-win-fields-medal-prompting-debate-about-national-pride-chinese-academia-and-feeling-discouraged/",
        "title": "Mathematicians Wang Hong and Deng Yu Win Fields Medal, Prompting Debate About National Pride, Chinese Academia, and Feeling “Discouraged”",
        "n_terms": 19,
        "terms": [
          "Academia",
          "Discouraged",
          "France",
          "Peking University",
          "U.S. universities",
          "United States",
          "Weibo censorship",
          "academics",
          "foreign universities",
          "higher education",
          "mathematics",
          "nationalism",
          "netizen comments",
          "online public opinion",
          "overseas Chinese",
          "science education",
          "translation excerpt",
          "universities",
          "women"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.2932
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      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/07/everything-is-sensitive-foreign-correspondents-club-survey-echoes-netizen-frustration-at-unpredictable-red-lines/",
        "title": "“Everything Is Sensitive”: Foreign Correspondents’ Club Survey Echoes Netizen Frustration at Unpredictable Red Lines",
        "n_terms": 12,
        "terms": [
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          "media conditions",
          "media control",
          "online censorship",
          "reporting",
          "social media censorship",
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      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/07/photo-%e5%b9%bf%e5%9c%ba%e9%b8%bd%e5%ad%90-by-costi/",
        "title": "Photo: 广场鸽子, by Costi",
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        "terms": [
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        "max_threat": 0.2511
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      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/07/photo-xanadu-by-xiquinho-silva/",
        "title": "Photo: Xanadu, by Xiquinho Silva",
        "n_terms": 2,
        "terms": [
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        ],
        "max_threat": 0.2511
      },
      {
        "url": "https://freedomhouse.org/article/tnr-watch-cyberattacks-tactic-digital-transnational-repression#new_tab",
        "title": "Freedom House – TNR Watch: Cyberattacks as a Tactic of Digital Transnational Repression",
        "n_terms": 2,
        "terms": [
          "CDT in the news",
          "WeChat"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.2511
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      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/07/translations-on-foreign-and-domestic-media-and-man-made-problems-lurking-behind-natural-disasters/",
        "title": "Translations: On Foreign and Domestic Media and “Man-Made Problems Lurking Behind Natural Disasters”",
        "n_terms": 22,
        "terms": [
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          "Man-Made Problems Lurking Behind Natural Disasters",
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        "max_threat": 0.2102
      },
      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/07/minitrue-718-leaked-directives-from-video-platform-letv/",
        "title": "Minitrue: 718 Leaked Directives from Video Platform LeTV",
        "n_terms": 31,
        "terms": [
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          "COVID-19",
          "Cyberspace Administration of China",
          "Directives from the Ministry of Truth",
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          "Hong Kong extradition",
          "Inner Mongolia",
          "Internet video",
          "Kim Jong Un",
          "Meng Wanzhou",
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          "Peng Liyuan",
          "People's Liberation Army",
          "Pingdu",
          "Public Security Bureau",
          "Tibet",
          "Xi Jinping",
          "Xi Mingze",
          "Xinjiang",
          "celebrities",
          "civil rights lawyers",
          "hong kong protests",
          "huawei",
          "li wenliang",
          "police",
          "rights lawyers",
          "social media",
          "social media censorship",
          "social media censorship complicity",
          "tax evasion",
          "wang yi"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.2101
      },
      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/07/translation-education-for-migrant-workers-children-cant-wait-any-longer/",
        "title": "Translation: “Education for Migrant Workers’ Children Can’t Wait Any Longer”",
        "n_terms": 18,
        "terms": [
          "birth control",
          "birth rate",
          "births",
          "children",
          "children education",
          "children's rights",
          "demographics",
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          "education reform",
          "hukou",
          "left-behind children",
          "migrant education",
          "migrant workers",
          "migrants",
          "rural areas",
          "rural children",
          "rural education",
          "rural migration"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.0199
      }
    ],
    "method": "exact CDT article URL; a campaign is an article that names two or more current DDTI terms. Title fuzzy-matching is refused."
  },
  "forecast_skill": {
    "headline": "8 signals scored over 1606 one-step forecasts; 84% of readings fell inside the 80% band (well calibrated); adaptive bands beat the fixed-quantile baseline on 4 of 8",
    "pooled_empirical_coverage": 0.844,
    "nominal_coverage": 0.8,
    "n_signals_scored": 8,
    "n_beating_baseline": 4,
    "n_forecasts": 1606,
    "signals": [
      {
        "signal": "censored_planet",
        "wis": 0.0214,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.75,
        "beats_baseline": true,
        "n_forecasts": 20,
        "n_misses": 5
      },
      {
        "signal": "ddti_threat",
        "wis": 0.1154,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.836,
        "beats_baseline": true,
        "n_forecasts": 341,
        "n_misses": 56
      },
      {
        "signal": "ddti_novelty",
        "wis": 0.4224,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.959,
        "beats_baseline": true,
        "n_forecasts": 341,
        "n_misses": 14
      },
      {
        "signal": "ooni_gfw",
        "wis": 0.4369,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.794,
        "beats_baseline": true,
        "n_forecasts": 170,
        "n_misses": 35
      },
      {
        "signal": "github_refuge",
        "wis": 0.5484,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.871,
        "beats_baseline": false,
        "n_forecasts": 85,
        "n_misses": 11
      },
      {
        "signal": "refusal_drift",
        "wis": 1.1412,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.786,
        "beats_baseline": false,
        "n_forecasts": 70,
        "n_misses": 15
      },
      {
        "signal": "gdelt_containment",
        "wis": 1.2045,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.818,
        "beats_baseline": false,
        "n_forecasts": 181,
        "n_misses": 33
      },
      {
        "signal": "tor_bridge_cn",
        "wis": 54.2207,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.796,
        "beats_baseline": false,
        "n_forecasts": 398,
        "n_misses": 81
      }
    ]
  },
  "n_layers_present": 9,
  "trigger": "cross-layer",
  "inputs": {
    "ddti": {
      "source": "ddti",
      "path": "ddti-latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "39563b64c12df0bec07120b57c2204fa1320c42c4c47c1ecfee9f9566c6916d3",
      "generated_at": "2026-08-24T04:07:05.744406+00:00"
    },
    "gdelt": {
      "source": "gdelt",
      "path": "gdelt-latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "4f82743337b6cc9387aedd8a2af536719c1db798be9a349b92c39cc09fe84909",
      "generated_at": "2026-08-24T02:17:50.053556+00:00"
    },
    "weibo": {
      "source": "weibo",
      "path": "weibo-hotsearch-latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "f9b53db318e428417e9042c79146f958b3d35aa97c5c017eb1d74eb691cfc9d1",
      "generated_at": "2026-08-24T05:55:38Z"
    },
    "github_refuge": {
      "source": "github_refuge",
      "path": "github-refuge-latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "5c3b67d1e0c5bc8b131bbda772797975668b53f76aa64c6fcc6d2adb24946e77",
      "generated_at": "2026-08-24T02:10:18.409322+00:00"
    },
    "board_alarm": {
      "source": "board_alarm",
      "path": "board-alarm-latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "d88df12f13c3186c723cab50c0e97b23e1863fa87e0917e0a403087ea02dc4b1",
      "generated_at": "2026-08-24T06:38:00.068780+00:00"
    },
    "coverage_guard": {
      "source": "coverage_guard",
      "path": "coverage-guard-latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "94ddabab22d710823ebd216ab693bae01ac32c6647408f64964968c2b5b9752f",
      "generated_at": "2026-08-24T06:38:00.174119+00:00"
    },
    "forecast_ledger": {
      "source": "forecast_ledger",
      "path": "forecast-ledger-latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "2030c8ebae30c5a3e323354ff1d82c2d608a98fdc2b476a673508fe1e84daa24",
      "generated_at": "2026-08-24T06:38:00.231413+00:00"
    },
    "cross_layer": {
      "source": "cross_layer",
      "path": "cross-layer-latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "7da56b6ce0e0c139d347655d48c0678aeb8a43833fb0567531b882ea3d0163b5",
      "generated_at": "2026-08-24T06:38:00.325845+00:00"
    },
    "gfi": {
      "source": "gfi",
      "path": "latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "3daacc7b91b056e31570b5c1250b7472b2d729fcc929b87b9fa50d4b25633618",
      "generated_at": "2026-08-23T08:02:43.590725+00:00"
    }
  },
  "abstentions": [],
  "limitations": [
    "The ranking is censor attention allocation from China Digital Times, not a deletion rate.",
    "A missing layer is an abstention, never a zero and never calm.",
    "GDELT and Weibo joins are exact-term matches against the current DDTI list.",
    "The Generative Firewall Index is a named-panel refusal reading, not a motive claim.",
    "Cross-layer coincidence counts elevated layers; it does not identify a common cause.",
    "GitHub-as-Refuge reports pressure against persisted prior-presence baselines only."
  ],
  "method_version": 1,
  "seal": {
    "payload_sha256": "5a74bbc0e09e65bbb8044400e5b185a368972f38a5e389ff06ca2879b2034042",
    "schema_version": "palimpsest-weekly-situation.v1",
    "template_id": "weekly-situation-v1"
  }
}