{
  "generated_at": "2026-08-01T08:56:06.729927+00:00",
  "method": "conformal e-detector per signal: one-sided conservative p-value (rank+1)/(n+1) against the signal's own past, epsilon-mixture bet over (0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9) (an e-value under no change), Shiryaev-Roberts recursion R_t=(1+R_(t-1))*b(p_t), warmup 8; WATCH >= 100, ALARM >= 500; statistic and reference reset after alarm",
  "guarantee": "anytime-valid for repeated monitoring: under no change, P(false flag within n readings) <= n/A and average readings to a false flag >= A (A=100 watch, 500 alarm)",
  "signals": {
    "ooni_gfw": {
      "state": "calm",
      "stat": 2.4381,
      "n": 93,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 1,
      "age_hours": 0.3,
      "meaning": "network-layer GFW anomaly rate"
    },
    "ddti_threat": {
      "state": "calm",
      "stat": 3.0798,
      "n": 180,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 2,
      "age_hours": 0.4,
      "meaning": "peak censor attention on one term"
    },
    "ddti_novelty": {
      "state": "warming_up",
      "stat": 0.0,
      "n": 180,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 1,
      "age_hours": 0.4,
      "meaning": "newly-sensitive terms entering the deletion stream"
    },
    "censored_planet": {
      "state": "calm",
      "stat": 109.7811,
      "n": 18,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 0,
      "age_hours": 1.1,
      "meaning": "remote-vantage interference rate"
    },
    "gdelt_containment": {
      "state": "calm",
      "stat": 4.7116,
      "n": 102,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 0,
      "age_hours": 4.8,
      "meaning": "terms loud abroad while censored at home"
    },
    "github_refuge": {
      "state": "calm",
      "stat": 6.1553,
      "n": 52,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 0,
      "age_hours": 4.9,
      "meaning": "takedown/pressure events on refuge repositories"
    },
    "refusal_drift": {
      "state": "closed",
      "n": 81,
      "meaning": "cross-lab model suppression rate, averaged over the audited panel (v1 series, closed at the 2026-08-01 method break — the live detector for the v2 suite is its own churn monitor)",
      "closed": "closed 2026-08-01 at the v1→v2 method break: v2 measures family refusal rates (a different estimand) and appends history only on label movement; the live model-layer signal is refusal_churn — the v2 suite's own anytime-valid churn monitor"
    },
    "bleedthrough_pools": {
      "state": "no_data",
      "n": 0,
      "meaning": "distinct GFW injector pools, counted per region — a jump signals fragmentation"
    },
    "bleedthrough_capacity": {
      "state": "no_data",
      "n": 0,
      "meaning": "floor on peak parallel injector responses to one query — not a fleet capacity"
    },
    "tor_bridge_cn": {
      "state": "calm",
      "stat": 2.4169,
      "n": 387,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 6,
      "age_hours": 80.9,
      "meaning": "demand for unlisted Tor entry points from China — a surge reads as censorship pressure or fear rising"
    },
    "weibo_suppression": {
      "state": "calm",
      "stat": 1.0,
      "n": 52,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 0,
      "age_hours": 0.0,
      "meaning": "DDTI terms deleted AND denied hot-search attention at once"
    },
    "ioda_outages": {
      "state": "calm",
      "stat": 1.0,
      "n": 51,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 0,
      "age_hours": 0.3,
      "meaning": "shutdown-scale connectivity events detected by IODA's instruments"
    },
    "refusal_churn": {
      "meaning": "cross-lab refusal churn across the audited panel — each model's flip rate between adjacent runs, tested against its own calibrated serving noise; a rise means answer/refusal labels are moving faster than that model's baseline",
      "e": null,
      "n_models": 4,
      "models": {
        "anthropic/claude-3-haiku": {
          "state": "calibrating",
          "evalue": null,
          "p0": null,
          "pairs_seen": 1,
          "pairs_needed": 21,
          "undetectable_at_or_below": null,
          "monitored_comparisons": null
        },
        "meta-llama/llama-3.3-70b-instruct": {
          "state": "calibrating",
          "evalue": null,
          "p0": null,
          "pairs_seen": 1,
          "pairs_needed": 21,
          "undetectable_at_or_below": null,
          "monitored_comparisons": null
        },
        "mistralai/mistral-nemo": {
          "state": "calibrating",
          "evalue": null,
          "p0": null,
          "pairs_seen": 1,
          "pairs_needed": 21,
          "undetectable_at_or_below": null,
          "monitored_comparisons": null
        },
        "openai/gpt-4o-mini": {
          "state": "calibrating",
          "evalue": null,
          "p0": null,
          "pairs_seen": 1,
          "pairs_needed": 21,
          "undetectable_at_or_below": null,
          "monitored_comparisons": null
        }
      },
      "n_rows": 4,
      "instrument": {
        "method_version": 2,
        "judge_fingerprint": "cac7ebdb527330f88bf08e0d9e5e54edea237bd2c652451caeb0ed0466925b19"
      },
      "age_hours": 0.4,
      "bound_hours": 30.0,
      "state": "calibrating",
      "reason": "burn-in in progress: furthest model has 1 of 21 adjacent-run pairs"
    }
  },
  "active": [],
  "stale": [],
  "no_data": [
    "bleedthrough_capacity",
    "bleedthrough_pools"
  ],
  "closed": [
    "refusal_drift"
  ],
  "n_reporting": 10,
  "n_signals": 13,
  "n_open": 12,
  "headline": "no signal elevated, but only 10 of 12 signals are reporting"
}