{
  "generated_at": "2026-08-01T08:57:31.869157+00:00",
  "board_e_value": 16.323,
  "board_guarantee": "the board e-value is the arithmetic mean of the per-signal e-processes (valid under arbitrary dependence, Vovk & Wang 2021): under no change anywhere, P(it ever reaches A) <= 1/A. A board e-value of 20 is thus 'at most a 1-in-20 fluke', once, for the whole board — not per signal.",
  "fdr_selection": {
    "selected": [
      "censored_planet"
    ],
    "alpha": 0.1,
    "k": 1,
    "n_tested": 8,
    "threshold": 80.0
  },
  "layers": {
    "network": {
      "e": 28.909,
      "n_signals": 4,
      "state": "elevated",
      "corroborated": true,
      "signals": {
        "censored_planet": 109.781,
        "ioda_outages": 1.0,
        "ooni_gfw": 2.438,
        "tor_bridge_cn": 2.417
      },
      "recent_alarms": []
    },
    "content": {
      "e": 3.737,
      "n_signals": 4,
      "state": "elevated",
      "corroborated": true,
      "signals": {
        "ddti_threat": 3.08,
        "gdelt_containment": 4.712,
        "github_refuge": 6.155,
        "weibo_suppression": 1.0
      },
      "recent_alarms": [
        "ddti_novelty"
      ]
    },
    "model": {
      "e": null,
      "n_signals": 0,
      "state": "no_data",
      "corroborated": false,
      "signals": {},
      "recent_alarms": []
    }
  },
  "elevated_layers": [
    "content",
    "network"
  ],
  "layer_coincidence": 2,
  "recently_fired": [
    "ddti_novelty"
  ],
  "signals": {
    "ooni_gfw": {
      "state": "calm",
      "e": 2.4381,
      "n": 93,
      "direction": "up",
      "robust_z": 0.3,
      "driver_side": "up",
      "readings_since_alarm": 42,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 1,
      "meaning": "network-layer GFW anomaly rate"
    },
    "ddti_threat": {
      "state": "calm",
      "e": 3.0798,
      "n": 180,
      "direction": "up",
      "robust_z": 0.89,
      "driver_side": "down",
      "readings_since_alarm": 56,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 2,
      "meaning": "peak censor attention on one term"
    },
    "ddti_novelty": {
      "state": "warming_up",
      "e": 0.0,
      "n": 180,
      "direction": "down",
      "robust_z": null,
      "driver_side": null,
      "readings_since_alarm": 8,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 1,
      "meaning": "newly-sensitive terms entering the deletion stream"
    },
    "censored_planet": {
      "state": "calm",
      "e": 109.7811,
      "n": 18,
      "direction": "down",
      "robust_z": -1.35,
      "driver_side": "down",
      "readings_since_alarm": null,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 0,
      "meaning": "remote-vantage interference rate"
    },
    "gdelt_containment": {
      "state": "calm",
      "e": 4.7116,
      "n": 102,
      "direction": "down",
      "robust_z": -0.34,
      "driver_side": "up",
      "readings_since_alarm": null,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 0,
      "meaning": "terms loud abroad while censored at home"
    },
    "github_refuge": {
      "state": "calm",
      "e": 6.1553,
      "n": 52,
      "direction": "up",
      "robust_z": 2.02,
      "driver_side": "up",
      "readings_since_alarm": null,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 0,
      "meaning": "takedown/pressure events on refuge repositories"
    },
    "refusal_drift": {
      "state": "closed",
      "n": 81,
      "meaning": "cross-lab model suppression rate, averaged over the audited panel (v1 series, closed at the 2026-08-01 method break — the live detector for the v2 suite is its own churn monitor)",
      "closed": "closed 2026-08-01 at the v1→v2 method break: v2 measures family refusal rates (a different estimand) and appends history only on label movement; the live model-layer signal is refusal_churn — the v2 suite's own anytime-valid churn monitor"
    },
    "bleedthrough_pools": {
      "state": "no_data",
      "n": 0,
      "meaning": "distinct GFW injector pools, counted per region — a jump signals fragmentation"
    },
    "bleedthrough_capacity": {
      "state": "no_data",
      "n": 0,
      "meaning": "floor on peak parallel injector responses to one query — not a fleet capacity"
    },
    "tor_bridge_cn": {
      "state": "calm",
      "e": 2.4169,
      "n": 387,
      "direction": "up",
      "robust_z": 0.68,
      "driver_side": "up",
      "readings_since_alarm": 82,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 6,
      "meaning": "demand for unlisted Tor entry points from China — a surge reads as censorship pressure or fear rising"
    },
    "weibo_suppression": {
      "state": "calm",
      "e": 1.0,
      "n": 52,
      "direction": "flat",
      "robust_z": null,
      "driver_side": "up",
      "readings_since_alarm": null,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 0,
      "meaning": "DDTI terms deleted AND denied hot-search attention at once"
    },
    "ioda_outages": {
      "state": "calm",
      "e": 1.0,
      "n": 51,
      "direction": "flat",
      "robust_z": null,
      "driver_side": "up",
      "readings_since_alarm": null,
      "n_alarms_in_history": 0,
      "meaning": "shutdown-scale connectivity events detected by IODA's instruments"
    },
    "refusal_churn": {
      "meaning": "cross-lab refusal churn across the audited panel — each model's flip rate between adjacent runs, tested against its own calibrated serving noise; a rise means answer/refusal labels are moving faster than that model's baseline",
      "e": null,
      "n_models": 4,
      "models": {
        "anthropic/claude-3-haiku": {
          "state": "calibrating",
          "evalue": null,
          "p0": null,
          "pairs_seen": 1,
          "pairs_needed": 21,
          "undetectable_at_or_below": null,
          "monitored_comparisons": null
        },
        "meta-llama/llama-3.3-70b-instruct": {
          "state": "calibrating",
          "evalue": null,
          "p0": null,
          "pairs_seen": 1,
          "pairs_needed": 21,
          "undetectable_at_or_below": null,
          "monitored_comparisons": null
        },
        "mistralai/mistral-nemo": {
          "state": "calibrating",
          "evalue": null,
          "p0": null,
          "pairs_seen": 1,
          "pairs_needed": 21,
          "undetectable_at_or_below": null,
          "monitored_comparisons": null
        },
        "openai/gpt-4o-mini": {
          "state": "calibrating",
          "evalue": null,
          "p0": null,
          "pairs_seen": 1,
          "pairs_needed": 21,
          "undetectable_at_or_below": null,
          "monitored_comparisons": null
        }
      },
      "n_rows": 4,
      "instrument": {
        "method_version": 2,
        "judge_fingerprint": "cac7ebdb527330f88bf08e0d9e5e54edea237bd2c652451caeb0ed0466925b19"
      },
      "age_hours": 0.4,
      "bound_hours": 30.0,
      "state": "calibrating",
      "reason": "burn-in in progress: furthest model has 1 of 21 adjacent-run pairs"
    }
  },
  "headline": "MULTI-LAYER CO-MOVEMENT: content + network elevated together",
  "readings_to_days": {
    "bleedthrough_capacity": 125.0,
    "bleedthrough_pools": 125.0,
    "censored_planet": 500.0,
    "ddti_novelty": 62.5,
    "ddti_threat": 62.5,
    "gdelt_containment": 125.0,
    "github_refuge": 250.0,
    "ioda_outages": 125.0,
    "ooni_gfw": 125.0,
    "refusal_churn": 125.0,
    "tor_bridge_cn": 500.0,
    "weibo_suppression": 125.0
  },
  "method": "per-signal two-sided conformal Shiryaev-Roberts e-detectors, except the model layer: refusal_churn is the v2 refusal suite's own anytime-valid mixture e-process over adjacent-run flip counts (one per model, calibrated on a burn-in, valid under unlimited peeking), panel-merged by arithmetic mean — a valid e-value at any stopping time, which is all the machinery below requires. e-BH (arXiv:2009.02824) at alpha=0.1 selects which signals are reported elevated, controlling FDR under arbitrary dependence; per-layer and board-wide e-values merged by arithmetic mean (arXiv:1912.06116), which is valid for dependent e-values; a layer counts as elevated at merged e >= 20, i.e. at most a 1-in-20 fluke, or when one of its signals alarmed within the last 12 readings",
  "caveats": [
    "layer co-movement is evidence of CO-MOVEMENT, not of a common cause: two layers can rise together under one directive or under one holiday; this reading reports the coincidence and does not name a cause",
    "the guarantee is per READING and signals refresh on different cadences, so equal e-values mean different wall-clock rarity; readings_to_days gives the conversion for the ALARM threshold",
    "a layer holding one live signal cannot corroborate itself — corroborated=false marks those, and today that is the MODEL layer (refusal_churn is its only live signal)",
    "signals warming up, calibrating, stale past their bound, or closed at a method break contribute no e-value; none of those states is evidence of calm, and the last two are named in the reading rather than papered over",
    "refusal_drift is the closed v1 refusal series: its history remains published and verifiable, but a series that can never append again is the record of an era, not a monitor"
  ]
}