{
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "$id": "https://palimpsest.info/protocol/economic-forecast-v1.schema.json",
  "title": "Palimpsest named-series economic forecast and backtest v1",
  "description": "A deterministic, bitemporal, pseudo-real-time backtest that abstains unless frozen promotion gates pass.",
  "type": "object",
  "additionalProperties": false,
  "required": [
    "schema_version",
    "generated_at",
    "as_of",
    "source",
    "method",
    "n_targets",
    "status",
    "scope",
    "claim",
    "configuration",
    "snapshot",
    "source_registry",
    "summary",
    "integrity",
    "targets",
    "limitations"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "schema_version": {"const": "palimpsest-economic-forecast.v1"},
    "generated_at": {"$ref": "#/$defs/timestamp"},
    "as_of": {"$ref": "#/$defs/timestamp"},
    "source": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
    "method": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
    "n_targets": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 1},
    "status": {"enum": ["warming_up", "ready"]},
    "scope": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
    "claim": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
    "configuration": {"$ref": "#/$defs/configuration"},
    "snapshot": {"$ref": "#/$defs/snapshot"},
    "source_registry": {"$ref": "#/$defs/sourceRegistry"},
    "summary": {"$ref": "#/$defs/summary"},
    "integrity": {"$ref": "#/$defs/integrity"},
    "targets": {
      "type": "array",
      "minItems": 1,
      "items": {"$ref": "#/$defs/target"}
    },
    "limitations": {"$ref": "#/$defs/stringArray"}
  },
  "allOf": [
    {
      "if": {
        "required": ["status"],
        "properties": {"status": {"const": "ready"}}
      },
      "then": {
        "properties": {
          "summary": {
            "properties": {
              "ready_targets": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 1},
              "abstaining_targets": {"const": 0}
            }
          },
          "targets": {
            "items": {
              "properties": {"status": {"const": "ready"}}
            }
          }
        }
      },
      "else": {
        "properties": {
          "summary": {
            "properties": {
              "abstaining_targets": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 1}
            }
          },
          "targets": {
            "contains": {
              "required": ["status"],
              "properties": {"status": {"const": "warming_up"}}
            }
          }
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "$defs": {
    "nonblank": {
      "type": "string",
      "minLength": 1,
      "pattern": ".*\\S.*"
    },
    "timestamp": {
      "type": "string",
      "format": "date-time",
      "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}T\\d{2}:\\d{2}:\\d{2}(?:\\.\\d{1,6})?Z$"
    },
    "date": {
      "type": "string",
      "format": "date",
      "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}$"
    },
    "sha256": {"type": "string", "pattern": "^[0-9a-f]{64}$"},
    "nullableNumber": {"type": ["number", "null"]},
    "nullableString": {"type": ["string", "null"]},
    "stringArray": {
      "type": "array",
      "items": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
      "uniqueItems": true
    },
    "promotionGates": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "min_first_release_folds",
        "min_latest_revised_folds",
        "min_history_span_days",
        "min_source_groups",
        "min_independence_groups",
        "min_revised_outcomes",
        "min_challenger_relative_mae_improvement",
        "min_interval_folds",
        "min_interval_coverage",
        "max_interval_coverage"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "min_first_release_folds": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "min_latest_revised_folds": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "min_history_span_days": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "min_source_groups": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "min_independence_groups": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "min_revised_outcomes": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "min_challenger_relative_mae_improvement": {"type": "number", "minimum": 0, "maximum": 1},
        "min_interval_folds": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "min_interval_coverage": {"type": "number", "minimum": 0, "maximum": 1},
        "max_interval_coverage": {"type": "number", "minimum": 0, "maximum": 1}
      }
    },
    "configuration": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["path", "sha256", "config_version", "engine_version", "baseline_model_id", "promotion_gates"],
      "properties": {
        "path": {"const": "config/china_econ_targets.json"},
        "sha256": {"$ref": "#/$defs/sha256"},
        "config_version": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 1},
        "engine_version": {"const": "palimpsest-economic-forecast-engine.v1"},
        "baseline_model_id": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "promotion_gates": {"$ref": "#/$defs/promotionGates"}
      }
    },
    "snapshot": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["path", "records", "bytes", "sha256", "as_of"],
      "properties": {
        "path": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "records": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 1},
        "bytes": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 1},
        "sha256": {"$ref": "#/$defs/sha256"},
        "as_of": {"$ref": "#/$defs/timestamp"}
      }
    },
    "sourceRegistry": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["path", "sha256"],
      "properties": {
        "path": {"const": "config/china_econ_sources.json"},
        "sha256": {"$ref": "#/$defs/sha256"}
      }
    },
    "summary": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["targets", "ready_targets", "abstaining_targets", "champion_target_ids"],
      "properties": {
        "targets": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 1},
        "ready_targets": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "abstaining_targets": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "champion_target_ids": {"$ref": "#/$defs/stringArray"}
      }
    },
    "integrity": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "aggregate_only",
        "release_clock_enforced",
        "collection_clock_enforced",
        "target_period_lookahead_blocked",
        "first_and_latest_outcomes_scored_separately",
        "failed_model_specs_retained"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "aggregate_only": {"const": true},
        "release_clock_enforced": {"const": true},
        "collection_clock_enforced": {"const": true},
        "target_period_lookahead_blocked": {"const": true},
        "first_and_latest_outcomes_scored_separately": {"const": true},
        "failed_model_specs_retained": {"const": true}
      }
    },
    "target": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "target_id", "label", "series_id", "source_id", "unit", "frequency",
        "geography", "sector", "firm_size", "ownership", "horizon", "status",
        "outcome_periods", "observed_source_ids", "observed_independence_groups",
        "models", "promotion", "nowcast", "folds"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "target_id": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "label": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "series_id": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "source_id": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "unit": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "frequency": {"enum": ["event", "D", "W", "M", "Q", "A"]},
        "geography": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "sector": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "firm_size": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "ownership": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "horizon": {"const": "next_observed_period"},
        "status": {"enum": ["warming_up", "ready"]},
        "outcome_periods": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "observed_source_ids": {"$ref": "#/$defs/stringArray"},
        "observed_independence_groups": {"$ref": "#/$defs/stringArray"},
        "models": {"type": "array", "minItems": 1, "items": {"$ref": "#/$defs/modelSummary"}},
        "promotion": {"$ref": "#/$defs/promotion"},
        "nowcast": {"oneOf": [{"type": "null"}, {"$ref": "#/$defs/nowcast"}]},
        "folds": {"type": "array", "items": {"$ref": "#/$defs/fold"}}
      },
      "allOf": [
        {
          "if": {
            "required": ["status"],
            "properties": {"status": {"const": "warming_up"}}
          },
          "then": {
            "properties": {
              "nowcast": {"type": "null"},
              "promotion": {
                "properties": {
                  "status": {"const": "failed"},
                  "champion_model_id": {"type": "null"}
                }
              }
            }
          },
          "else": {
            "properties": {
              "nowcast": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nowcast"},
              "promotion": {
                "properties": {
                  "status": {"const": "passed"},
                  "champion_model_id": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"}
                }
              }
            }
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    "modelSpec": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "model_id", "kind", "description", "min_train_observations",
        "min_scored_folds", "seasonal_lag", "delta_lookback", "interval_coverage",
        "min_interval_residuals", "min_bridge_contributors"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "model_id": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "kind": {"enum": ["random_walk", "seasonal_naive", "mean_delta", "equal_delta_bridge"]},
        "description": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "min_train_observations": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 1},
        "min_scored_folds": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 1},
        "seasonal_lag": {"type": ["integer", "null"], "minimum": 1},
        "delta_lookback": {"type": ["integer", "null"], "minimum": 1},
        "interval_coverage": {"type": ["number", "null"], "exclusiveMinimum": 0, "exclusiveMaximum": 1},
        "min_interval_residuals": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 1},
        "min_bridge_contributors": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 1}
      }
    },
    "intervalScores": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["n_scored", "nominal_coverage", "empirical_coverage", "mean_wis"],
      "properties": {
        "n_scored": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "nominal_coverage": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableNumber"},
        "empirical_coverage": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableNumber"},
        "mean_wis": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableNumber"}
      }
    },
    "scores": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["n_scored", "mae", "median_absolute_error", "rmse", "directional_accuracy", "n_directional", "intervals"],
      "properties": {
        "n_scored": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "mae": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableNumber"},
        "median_absolute_error": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableNumber"},
        "rmse": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableNumber"},
        "directional_accuracy": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableNumber"},
        "n_directional": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "intervals": {"$ref": "#/$defs/intervalScores"}
      }
    },
    "failureCount": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["code", "count"],
      "properties": {
        "code": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "count": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 1}
      }
    },
    "modelSummary": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "model_id", "model_hash", "status", "status_reason", "spec",
        "configured_contributor_series_ids", "observed_source_ids",
        "observed_independence_groups", "folds_attempted", "folds_failed",
        "failure_counts", "first_release_scores", "latest_revised_scores"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "model_id": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "model_hash": {"$ref": "#/$defs/sha256"},
        "status": {"enum": ["failed", "insufficient_history", "eligible"]},
        "status_reason": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableString"},
        "spec": {"$ref": "#/$defs/modelSpec"},
        "configured_contributor_series_ids": {"$ref": "#/$defs/stringArray"},
        "observed_source_ids": {"$ref": "#/$defs/stringArray"},
        "observed_independence_groups": {"$ref": "#/$defs/stringArray"},
        "folds_attempted": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "folds_failed": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "failure_counts": {"type": "array", "items": {"$ref": "#/$defs/failureCount"}},
        "first_release_scores": {"$ref": "#/$defs/scores"},
        "latest_revised_scores": {"$ref": "#/$defs/scores"}
      }
    },
    "coverageWindow": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["minimum", "maximum"],
      "properties": {
        "minimum": {"type": "number"},
        "maximum": {"type": "number"}
      }
    },
    "coverageObserved": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["first_release", "latest_revised"],
      "properties": {
        "first_release": {"type": "number"},
        "latest_revised": {"type": "number"}
      }
    },
    "gateValue": {
      "oneOf": [
        {"type": "null"},
        {"type": "boolean"},
        {"type": "number"},
        {"$ref": "#/$defs/coverageWindow"},
        {"$ref": "#/$defs/coverageObserved"}
      ]
    },
    "gateCheck": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["gate_id", "required", "observed", "passed", "detail"],
      "properties": {
        "gate_id": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "required": {"$ref": "#/$defs/gateValue"},
        "observed": {"$ref": "#/$defs/gateValue"},
        "passed": {"type": "boolean"},
        "detail": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"}
      }
    },
    "promotion": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "status", "baseline_model_id", "candidate_model_id", "champion_model_id",
        "first_release_relative_mae_improvement", "latest_revised_relative_mae_improvement",
        "checks", "abstention_reasons"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "status": {"enum": ["failed", "passed"]},
        "baseline_model_id": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "candidate_model_id": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableString"},
        "champion_model_id": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableString"},
        "first_release_relative_mae_improvement": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableNumber"},
        "latest_revised_relative_mae_improvement": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableNumber"},
        "checks": {"type": "array", "minItems": 1, "items": {"$ref": "#/$defs/gateCheck"}},
        "abstention_reasons": {"type": "array", "items": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"}}
      },
      "allOf": [
        {
          "if": {
            "required": ["status"],
            "properties": {"status": {"const": "failed"}}
          },
          "then": {
            "properties": {
              "champion_model_id": {"type": "null"},
              "abstention_reasons": {"minItems": 1},
              "checks": {
                "contains": {
                  "required": ["passed"],
                  "properties": {"passed": {"const": false}}
                }
              }
            }
          },
          "else": {
            "properties": {
              "candidate_model_id": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
              "champion_model_id": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
              "abstention_reasons": {"maxItems": 0},
              "checks": {
                "not": {
                  "contains": {
                    "required": ["passed"],
                    "properties": {"passed": {"const": false}}
                  }
                }
              }
            }
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    "outcome": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["value", "revision", "released_at", "collected_at", "observation_id"],
      "properties": {
        "value": {"type": "number"},
        "revision": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "released_at": {"$ref": "#/$defs/timestamp"},
        "collected_at": {"$ref": "#/$defs/timestamp"},
        "observation_id": {"$ref": "#/$defs/sha256"}
      }
    },
    "failure": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["code", "message"],
      "properties": {
        "code": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "message": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"}
      }
    },
    "prediction": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "model_id", "status", "point", "lower", "upper", "interval_coverage",
        "interval_method", "origin_value", "training_observations", "training_residuals",
        "method", "contributor_series_ids", "source_ids", "independence_groups", "failure"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "model_id": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "status": {"enum": ["ok", "failed"]},
        "point": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableNumber"},
        "lower": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableNumber"},
        "upper": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableNumber"},
        "interval_coverage": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableNumber"},
        "interval_method": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableString"},
        "origin_value": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableNumber"},
        "training_observations": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "training_residuals": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "method": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableString"},
        "contributor_series_ids": {"$ref": "#/$defs/stringArray"},
        "source_ids": {"$ref": "#/$defs/stringArray"},
        "independence_groups": {"$ref": "#/$defs/stringArray"},
        "failure": {"oneOf": [{"type": "null"}, {"$ref": "#/$defs/failure"}]}
      }
    },
    "selection": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "candidate_rows", "selected_rows", "excluded_by_release_clock",
        "excluded_by_collection_clock", "same_or_future_period_rows_excluded"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "candidate_rows": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "selected_rows": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "excluded_by_release_clock": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "excluded_by_collection_clock": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0},
        "same_or_future_period_rows_excluded": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 0}
      }
    },
    "fold": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "fold_id", "target_period_start", "target_period_end", "decision_time",
        "first_release_outcome", "latest_revised_outcome", "outcome_changed",
        "feature_snapshot_sha256", "selection", "predictions"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "fold_id": {"$ref": "#/$defs/sha256"},
        "target_period_start": {"$ref": "#/$defs/date"},
        "target_period_end": {"$ref": "#/$defs/date"},
        "decision_time": {"$ref": "#/$defs/timestamp"},
        "first_release_outcome": {"$ref": "#/$defs/outcome"},
        "latest_revised_outcome": {"$ref": "#/$defs/outcome"},
        "outcome_changed": {"type": "boolean"},
        "feature_snapshot_sha256": {"$ref": "#/$defs/sha256"},
        "selection": {"$ref": "#/$defs/selection"},
        "predictions": {"type": "array", "minItems": 1, "items": {"$ref": "#/$defs/prediction"}}
      }
    },
    "nowcast": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "as_of", "target_period", "model_id", "point", "lower", "upper",
        "interval_coverage", "unit", "contributor_series_ids", "source_ids",
        "independence_groups", "feature_snapshot_sha256"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "as_of": {"$ref": "#/$defs/timestamp"},
        "target_period": {
          "type": "object",
          "additionalProperties": false,
          "required": ["kind", "after"],
          "properties": {
            "kind": {"const": "next_observed_period"},
            "after": {"$ref": "#/$defs/date"}
          }
        },
        "model_id": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "point": {"type": "number"},
        "lower": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableNumber"},
        "upper": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableNumber"},
        "interval_coverage": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nullableNumber"},
        "unit": {"$ref": "#/$defs/nonblank"},
        "contributor_series_ids": {"$ref": "#/$defs/stringArray"},
        "source_ids": {"$ref": "#/$defs/stringArray"},
        "independence_groups": {"$ref": "#/$defs/stringArray"},
        "feature_snapshot_sha256": {"$ref": "#/$defs/sha256"}
      }
    }
  }
}