{
  "id": "palimpsest-news:believability",
  "slug": "believability-read",
  "url": "https://palimpsest.info/news/believability-read/",
  "signal_id": "believability",
  "headline": "Believability read: no current finding",
  "dek": "The source is degraded. Palimpsest keeps the availability and evidence record visible without publishing retained values as current news.",
  "section": "economy",
  "order": 5,
  "type": "analysis",
  "priority": "background",
  "status": "degraded",
  "published_at": "2026-08-18T07:23:09Z",
  "modified_at": "2026-08-18T07:23:09Z",
  "claim_fingerprint": "sha256:7adfd5f89d69f6f7aa86f6737ad2e35ed89a810eb2c7f17f3d5373c19e7a8863",
  "metric": {
    "label": null,
    "value": null,
    "unit": null,
    "denominator": {
      "label": null,
      "value": null
    }
  },
  "claims": [
    {
      "type": "availability",
      "statement": "No current finding is published for Believability read because the source status is degraded."
    }
  ],
  "evidence": {
    "url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/believability-latest.json",
    "input": {
      "filename": "believability-latest.json",
      "sha256": "5b810c7778054877a36f9daa0fef4056ae3beed968e4f85863e2f864d86e21c8",
      "bytes": 1921
    },
    "source_timestamp": "2026-08-18T07:23:09Z"
  },
  "method": {
    "summary": "the Li Keqiang composite (40% loan growth, 40% electricity, 20% rail freight, using the canonical weights) against the state's own headline industrial-production YoY for the same month. The statistic is DRIFT: this month's headline-minus-composite gap against the gap's own rolling median and MAD band, so a services-heavy economy's persistent gap reads as baseline and only a break in the established relationship registers. Electricity is PRODUCTION (the keyless state series), not the original's consumption; this is a stated substitution. A missing component abstains the composite rather than reweighting it; fewer than 8 months of history publishes the gap but claims no drift (warming_up). Full method, origin, critiques and counterpoint: docs/BELIEVABILITY.md. A reading outside the band is evidence the relationship moved; it does not, by itself, establish fabrication",
    "version": 2
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Current finding withheld: upstream status is abstain",
    "A divergence outside the historical band shows a relationship moved; it does not by itself establish fabrication."
  ],
  "related_signal_ids": [
    "china-econ",
    "data-darkness"
  ]
}