{
  "case_id": "machine-case-8f0809ee940d247bacff",
  "claim_blocks": [
    {
      "block_id": "network-denominators",
      "citation_ids": [
        "evidence-ooni-gfw",
        "evidence-in-path-interference",
        "evidence-inside-view"
      ],
      "independence_group_ids": [
        "pipeline:palimpsest-inside-view",
        "publisher:ooni"
      ],
      "paragraph": "OONI anomaly index reports 58.3 percent across 272,935 completed measurements, OONI in-path middlebox index reports 1.37 percent across 9,283 completed middlebox tests, and Inside-China fixed DNS panel reports 1.0 ratio across 5 qualifying answered measurement domains. The three cited values do not share a population, protocol, test family, denominator, or even a common unit, while measurements with the same independence-group identifier count only once. The cited measurements record observable interference within their named methods, but they cannot be combined into one defensible national filtering percentage.",
      "sentences": [
        {
          "citation_ids": [
            "evidence-ooni-gfw",
            "evidence-in-path-interference",
            "evidence-inside-view"
          ],
          "sentence_id": "network-denominators-sentence-1",
          "text": "OONI anomaly index reports 58.3 percent across 272,935 completed measurements, OONI in-path middlebox index reports 1.37 percent across 9,283 completed middlebox tests, and Inside-China fixed DNS panel reports 1.0 ratio across 5 qualifying answered measurement domains."
        },
        {
          "citation_ids": [
            "evidence-ooni-gfw",
            "evidence-in-path-interference",
            "evidence-inside-view"
          ],
          "sentence_id": "network-denominators-sentence-2",
          "text": "The three cited values do not share a population, protocol, test family, denominator, or even a common unit, while measurements with the same independence-group identifier count only once."
        },
        {
          "citation_ids": [
            "evidence-ooni-gfw",
            "evidence-inside-view"
          ],
          "sentence_id": "network-denominators-sentence-3",
          "text": "The cited measurements record observable interference within their named methods, but they cannot be combined into one defensible national filtering percentage."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "block_id": "network-independence",
      "citation_ids": [
        "evidence-ooni-gfw",
        "evidence-inside-view",
        "evidence-in-path-interference"
      ],
      "independence_group_ids": [
        "pipeline:palimpsest-inside-view",
        "publisher:ooni"
      ],
      "paragraph": "After lineage de-duplication, the cited record contains two independent groups: pipeline:palimpsest-inside-view and publisher:ooni. The in-path instrument remains useful as a distinct technical view, but it contributes no additional independent group because it reuses OONI measurements.",
      "sentences": [
        {
          "citation_ids": [
            "evidence-ooni-gfw",
            "evidence-inside-view"
          ],
          "sentence_id": "network-independence-sentence-1",
          "text": "After lineage de-duplication, the cited record contains two independent groups: pipeline:palimpsest-inside-view and publisher:ooni."
        },
        {
          "citation_ids": [
            "evidence-ooni-gfw",
            "evidence-in-path-interference"
          ],
          "sentence_id": "network-independence-sentence-2",
          "text": "The in-path instrument remains useful as a distinct technical view, but it contributes no additional independent group because it reuses OONI measurements."
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "corrections": {
    "history": [
      {
        "change_type": "initial-publication",
        "published_at": "2026-08-12T16:51:37Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-539389b2bf97e09ff5b287b4",
        "summary": "Initial deterministic revision for this exact cited input set."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-12T19:56:12Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-f22f305f307866121353565d",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-13T05:52:10Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-06d6d791c63f7ea229f7ef84",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-13T08:12:55Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-30c6872df9cd8528d793b36a",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-13T14:16:40Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-82e860199998691e31af4a5c",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-13T19:46:22Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-64f016a25eafdb288d0bf588",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-14T03:57:20Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-4922c7c9419e091569d6ceba",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-14T10:39:25Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-ce72808af0048937fc31b859",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-14T14:03:18Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-5cef31fa32eca8d7910626af",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-14T19:42:35Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-ba64b8b909dcc36622f0f2cb",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-15T02:08:32Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-8412c57fd4f37c224e42ca14",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-15T07:19:36Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-8003dbc0bd6e678cdb23cb13",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-15T13:04:24Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-9eb09629e25e643bd095a631",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-15T13:07:01Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-44601e9340d4588f15e28f48",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-15T13:23:23Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-8c8cc87127b481248eaf5c4d",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-15T18:52:31Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-582cc95ef8d64d5c2c3f9fbd",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-15T18:54:59Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-298ffd57bbecb7d27688e3dd",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-15T19:15:22Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-35446fd21ec033ee8b41d12e",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-16T02:02:39Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-b28e6aa25c47f5612499076a",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-16T02:05:12Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-81baf71220e567baf30e4592",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-16T02:15:58Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-b4b943680eea4ceba65870b3",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-16T07:19:31Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-946cdd79759fa7618249bd9d",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-16T13:07:03Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-28b157779aeaa4371f691b72",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-16T13:09:23Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-953d4773331b7a8f9faf1192",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-16T13:21:39Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-0344e55baa57f0159fca4266",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-16T19:07:36Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-0b8987ea3174dc6590a5dc22",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-17T02:11:10Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-aa53cf7212a1cd43c583cc06",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-17T07:47:11Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-ce515daffa912909c9ac6796",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-18T11:54:43Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-b98fea7f9e5a5a3acf23dafa",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-19T07:32:03Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-3285ef34c3a1ba3de8223950",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-20T03:58:33Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-311dc403f9323c1522445054",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-20T07:34:21Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-42199ebaa27f319f743616a8",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-20T14:52:03Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-bf3887f602c2c2376f486699",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-22T02:07:11Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-21011a599b2ad49c5c795c80",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-22T07:39:12Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-9e4ce82aafbbbd83cf6bdf00",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-22T13:29:19Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-d9761bab226a0c8288f550c7",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-22T19:02:56Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-de60edeecde015f1f9b94390",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-23T05:22:07Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-61826a1941b1b224a85e054d",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-23T08:29:03Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-0510f900c5d24be817b894aa",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-23T18:03:38Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-35924b9b522e81fe498a2dfb",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      },
      {
        "change_type": "data-refresh",
        "published_at": "2026-08-24T02:38:03Z",
        "revision_id": "machinev-5e1357c794ace1a5f3d423cc",
        "summary": "Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed."
      }
    ],
    "last_corrected_at": null,
    "policy": "A changed input receipt creates a new immutable revision; material errors are named in this history.",
    "status": "none"
  },
  "countercases": [
    {
      "citation_ids": [
        "evidence-ooni-gfw"
      ],
      "countercase_id": "countercase-benign-anomaly",
      "disposition": "Retained; the report claims observable interference, not that every anomaly is a confirmed block.",
      "statement": "Some OONI anomalies can arise from endpoint or network failure rather than deliberate filtering."
    },
    {
      "citation_ids": [
        "evidence-inside-view"
      ],
      "countercase_id": "countercase-panel-selection",
      "disposition": "Retained; the panel ratio is never generalized to all domains or users.",
      "statement": "A fixed panel chosen for censorship sensitivity can saturate even if most domains remain reachable."
    }
  ],
  "dek": "Multiple scoped instruments report observable network interference, while their incompatible panels, protocols and denominators rule out one national percentage.",
  "evaluation_receipt": {
    "citation_coverage": 1.0,
    "evaluated_at": "2026-08-24T02:38:03Z",
    "failed_gate_ids": [],
    "gates": [
      {
        "detail": "5 of 5 analytical sentences have non-empty citation arrays.",
        "gate_id": "sentence-citations",
        "label": "Every analytical sentence has exact evidence IDs",
        "observed": 5,
        "passed": true,
        "required": 5
      },
      {
        "detail": "Rights-ineligible candidates excluded from numeric republication: censored-planet (LINK_ONLY/metadata_only).",
        "gate_id": "numeric-reuse-rights",
        "label": "Every republished numeric value passes redistribution and reuse gates",
        "observed": 3,
        "passed": true,
        "required": 3
      },
      {
        "detail": "OONI and the in-path instrument count once because they share publisher:ooni lineage.",
        "gate_id": "independent-groups",
        "label": "Independent evidence groups after lineage de-duplication",
        "observed": 2,
        "passed": true,
        "required": 2
      },
      {
        "detail": "Freshness comes from the validated evidence mesh, not the machine desk's wall clock.",
        "gate_id": "fresh-evidence",
        "label": "Cited measurements are current under declared source deadlines",
        "observed": 3,
        "passed": true,
        "required": 3
      },
      {
        "detail": "The report includes all three adversarial-review surfaces.",
        "gate_id": "adversarial-review",
        "label": "Countercases, limitations and falsifiers are explicit",
        "observed": 3,
        "passed": true,
        "required": 3
      }
    ],
    "independent_group_ids": [
      "pipeline:palimpsest-inside-view",
      "publisher:ooni"
    ],
    "minimum_independent_groups": 2,
    "observed_independent_groups": 2,
    "publishable": true,
    "status": "passed"
  },
  "evidence": [
    {
      "artifact_generated_at": "2026-08-24T02:00:59Z",
      "artifact_id": "ooni-gfw-latest.json",
      "artifact_sha256": "90accfb51b97976a774e922f9874ab3af2d4fe9a81b934354dfa714981bf1009",
      "artifact_url": "https://palimpsest.info/news/analysis/evidence/sha256-90accfb51b97976a774e922f9874ab3af2d4fe9a81b934354dfa714981bf1009.json",
      "denominator": {
        "label": "completed measurements",
        "value": 272935
      },
      "evidence_id": "evidence-ooni-gfw",
      "freshness": "fresh",
      "independence_group": "publisher:ooni",
      "integrity": "embedded-receipt-verified",
      "interpretation_limit": "OONI's anomaly index uses completed measurements across several test families; the separate total-measurement count also includes failed attempts. An anomaly is not a confirmed block and the probe/test mix is not China's population.",
      "role": "support",
      "selector": "json-pointer:/gfw_index;denominator-json-pointer:/n_completed_measurements",
      "source_class": "RESEARCH_DATASET",
      "source_id": "ooni-gfw",
      "source_timestamp": "2026-08-24T02:00:59Z",
      "title": "OONI anomaly index",
      "upstream_groups": [
        "publisher:ooni"
      ],
      "value": 58.3,
      "value_type": "percent"
    },
    {
      "artifact_generated_at": "2026-08-24T02:07:57Z",
      "artifact_id": "in-path-interference-latest.json",
      "artifact_sha256": "b2eba327467c6e780d015440bd7d26a5c5f1814fdb4efade486125003e323592",
      "artifact_url": "https://palimpsest.info/news/analysis/evidence/sha256-b2eba327467c6e780d015440bd7d26a5c5f1814fdb4efade486125003e323592.json",
      "denominator": {
        "label": "completed middlebox tests",
        "value": 9283
      },
      "evidence_id": "evidence-in-path-interference",
      "freshness": "fresh",
      "independence_group": "publisher:ooni",
      "integrity": "embedded-receipt-verified",
      "interpretation_limit": "This is derived from OONI measurements and shares the publisher:ooni lineage. Its completed-test denominator and test family differ from the OONI reachability index.",
      "role": "support",
      "selector": "json-pointer:/middlebox_index;denominator-json-pointer:/middlebox_completed_count",
      "source_class": "RESEARCH_DATASET",
      "source_id": "in-path-interference",
      "source_timestamp": "2026-08-24T02:07:57Z",
      "title": "OONI in-path middlebox index",
      "upstream_groups": [
        "publisher:ooni"
      ],
      "value": 1.37,
      "value_type": "percent"
    },
    {
      "artifact_generated_at": "2026-08-24T02:10:02Z",
      "artifact_id": "inside-view-latest.json",
      "artifact_sha256": "9fe7b2157fc21a8b26214153b614b0c01fe9f8b5e9839f45e753aa6546831291",
      "artifact_url": "https://palimpsest.info/news/analysis/evidence/sha256-9fe7b2157fc21a8b26214153b614b0c01fe9f8b5e9839f45e753aa6546831291.json",
      "denominator": {
        "label": "qualifying answered measurement domains",
        "value": 5
      },
      "evidence_id": "evidence-inside-view",
      "freshness": "fresh",
      "independence_group": "pipeline:palimpsest-inside-view",
      "integrity": "embedded-receipt-verified",
      "interpretation_limit": "The ratio is for a fixed, deliberately censorship-sensitive domain panel and consented cloud probes; it is not a representative domain or user sample.",
      "role": "support",
      "selector": "json-pointer:/block_rate;denominator-json-pointer:/n_censored_answered",
      "source_class": "RESEARCH_DATASET",
      "source_id": "inside-view",
      "source_timestamp": "2026-08-24T02:10:02Z",
      "title": "Inside-China fixed DNS panel",
      "upstream_groups": [
        "publisher:globalping",
        "publisher:team-cymru"
      ],
      "value": 1.0,
      "value_type": "ratio"
    }
  ],
  "falsifiers": [
    {
      "citation_ids": [
        "evidence-ooni-gfw",
        "evidence-inside-view"
      ],
      "falsifier_id": "falsifier-control-convergence",
      "statement": "The observable-interference finding would weaken if independently operated China and control vantages converged within instrument error across repeated windows.",
      "status": "not-triggered",
      "test": "Repeat predeclared protocols over multiple windows and compare China/control distributions with retained raw denominators."
    },
    {
      "citation_ids": [
        "evidence-ooni-gfw",
        "evidence-in-path-interference",
        "evidence-inside-view"
      ],
      "falsifier_id": "falsifier-common-denominator",
      "statement": "A national-rate estimate would become testable only after a representative sampling frame and common outcome definition exist.",
      "status": "evidence-needed",
      "test": "Publish the sampling frame, inclusion probabilities, shared protocol, nonresponse accounting and uncertainty interval before estimating a population rate."
    }
  ],
  "hypotheses": [
    {
      "citation_ids": [
        "evidence-ooni-gfw",
        "evidence-inside-view"
      ],
      "disposition": "supported",
      "falsifier_ids": [
        "falsifier-control-convergence"
      ],
      "hypothesis_id": "hypothesis-observable-interference",
      "statement": "Network interference affecting China-facing tests is observable across independently produced measurement methods."
    },
    {
      "citation_ids": [
        "evidence-ooni-gfw",
        "evidence-in-path-interference",
        "evidence-inside-view"
      ],
      "disposition": "rejected",
      "falsifier_ids": [
        "falsifier-common-denominator"
      ],
      "hypothesis_id": "hypothesis-single-national-rate",
      "statement": "The 3 headline values estimate one common national filtering rate."
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    {
      "consequence": "No weighted average or single national percentage is calculated.",
      "limitation_id": "limitation-incompatible-denominators",
      "statement": "The instruments observe different test populations with different denominators and units."
    },
    {
      "consequence": "Findings are bounded to the named instruments and collection windows.",
      "limitation_id": "limitation-vantage-coverage",
      "statement": "Probe, resolver, domain and remote-vantage coverage is not a probability sample of China's people or networks."
    },
    {
      "consequence": "They count as one independent group at the publication gate.",
      "limitation_id": "limitation-shared-lineage",
      "statement": "OONI reachability and in-path metrics reuse the same publisher lineage."
    },
    {
      "consequence": "An available source is not republished or counted when its current contract permits metadata-only reuse.",
      "limitation_id": "limitation-rights-gated-candidate",
      "statement": "Rights-ineligible candidates excluded from numeric republication: censored-planet (LINK_ONLY/metadata_only)."
    }
  ],
  "methodology": [
    {
      "description": "Hash the exact four public input files and validate their declared schemas.",
      "reproducible": true,
      "step_id": "method-pin-inputs"
    },
    {
      "description": "Resolve predeclared network values and denominators against JSON pointers in their exact raw artifact bytes.",
      "reproducible": true,
      "step_id": "method-bind-evidence"
    },
    {
      "description": "Republish and count only values whose mesh resource permits derived or full-text reuse with open or attribution-required redistribution.",
      "reproducible": true,
      "step_id": "method-gate-rights"
    },
    {
      "description": "Resolve independence groups through the evidence mesh before counting corroboration.",
      "reproducible": true,
      "step_id": "method-deduplicate-lineage"
    },
    {
      "description": "Require complete sentence citations, fresh evidence, independent groups and adversarial review.",
      "reproducible": true,
      "step_id": "method-gate-publication"
    }
  ],
  "profile": "automated_evidence_analysis",
  "published_at": "2026-08-12T16:51:37Z",
  "report_type": "AnalysisReport",
  "revision_id": "machinev-5e1357c794ace1a5f3d423cc",
  "safety": {
    "analysis_mode": "deterministic-machine-analysis",
    "human_interviews": "none",
    "individual_allegations": "none",
    "inferred_motives": "none",
    "personal_data": "none",
    "prohibited_interpretations": [
      "Do not treat aggregate measurements as claims about identifiable people.",
      "Do not infer intent, motive, or responsibility from technical correlation.",
      "Do not describe this output as human reporting or a human interview."
    ]
  },
  "slug": "china-network-filtering-has-no-honest-single-rate",
  "source_case_id": "machine-source-80b1b871bed35fc29d24",
  "source_revision_id": "machine-sourcev-bd7a32196defb24a5247847f",
  "status": "published",
  "status_reason": "Published because citations are complete, all 3 republished measurements are fresh and rights-eligible, and 2 lineage-independent groups meet the configured minimum of 2.",
  "title": "China's network filtering has no honest single rate",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-24T02:38:03Z",
  "url": "/news/analysis/china-network-filtering-has-no-honest-single-rate/"
}