{ "schema_version": "palimpsest-eval-article.v1", "article_id": "evalarticle-f572a6fb5ed2d5d3dca3", "revision_id": "evalarticlev-fa9dfea4c0b3665455490d66", "previous_revision_id": "evalarticlev-50e924c2541aff6694ef99e6", "slug": "what-changed-in-the-latest-model-panel", "url": "/journal/what-changed-in-the-latest-model-panel/", "kicker": "Model behavior / adjacent-run drift", "title": "No answer-state changes appeared in the latest panel", "dek": "Across 4 sealed endpoint runs, all 163 paired family comparisons kept the same answer state. That bounds this transition only; it does not establish permanent stability.", "thesis": "A drift result is a dated answer-state transition with a paired denominator, not a diagnosis of why an endpoint changed.", "finding_state": "bounded-finding", "published_at": "2026-08-15T12:55:00.684023+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-20T01:47:29.258006+00:00", "key_numbers": [ { "value": "0", "label": "answer-state transitions", "note": "0 toward refusal, 0 toward answer", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-acaff262127993200de0" ] }, { "value": "163", "label": "paired family comparisons", "note": "across 4 named endpoints", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-acaff262127993200de0" ] }, { "value": "0/4", "label": "endpoints with a change", "note": "latest compatible transition", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-acaff262127993200de0", "evalevidence-023f864232dd56b82c63" ] } ], "sections": [ { "section_id": "latest-transition", "heading": "What changed in the latest transition", "paragraphs": [ { "sentences": [ { "text": "The latest panel recorded 0 new refusal transitions and 0 newly answered transitions across 163 paired family comparisons.", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-acaff262127993200de0" ] }, { "text": "Those transitions occurred in 0 of 4 named endpoint runs.", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-acaff262127993200de0", "evalevidence-023f864232dd56b82c63" ] } ] } ] }, { "section_id": "transition-not-trend", "heading": "One transition is not a trend", "paragraphs": [ { "sentences": [ { "text": "The comparison is adjacent and endpoint-specific, so a changed label establishes neither a persistent trajectory nor a common cause across providers.", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-acaff262127993200de0", "evalevidence-b70c411e477c51a49048" ] }, { "text": "The registry preserves the exact current attestations, which makes later revision detectable without revealing a provider's hidden routing or weights.", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-023f864232dd56b82c63" ] } ] } ] }, { "section_id": "monitor-boundary", "heading": "The churn alarm watches a different failure mode", "paragraphs": [ { "sentences": [ { "text": "The anytime-valid monitor is designed to detect repeated instability after calibration, while the adjacent comparison records individual answer-state changes immediately.", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-b82a7ee9154a44808447", "evalevidence-b70c411e477c51a49048" ] }, { "text": "A single change that then remains fixed cannot become repeated evidence merely because the same question is asked again.", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-b82a7ee9154a44808447" ] } ] } ] } ], "counterreadings": [ { "text": "No observed transition is favorable evidence of short-run stability inside this exact panel.", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-acaff262127993200de0" ] }, { "text": "An observed transition can reflect endpoint routing, sampling, classifier error, or model change; the eval alone does not select among those explanations.", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-acaff262127993200de0", "evalevidence-b70c411e477c51a49048" ] } ], "limitations": [ { "text": "Only prompt families present in both compatible adjacent runs enter the paired denominator.", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-acaff262127993200de0", "evalevidence-b70c411e477c51a49048" ] }, { "text": "Endpoint names do not independently prove that the provider served unchanged weights or routing across runs.", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-023f864232dd56b82c63" ] }, { "text": "The lexical answer-state classifier still requires independent human validation for a broader construct claim.", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-b70c411e477c51a49048" ] } ], "methodology": [ { "step": "Pair", "detail": "Compare only compatible family labels shared by adjacent dated runs.", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-acaff262127993200de0", "evalevidence-b70c411e477c51a49048" ] }, { "step": "Count", "detail": "Publish new refusals, newly answered families, and the paired denominator separately for every endpoint.", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-acaff262127993200de0" ] }, { "step": "Seal", "detail": "Bind the current response metrics to verified registry entries before publishing the interpretation.", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-023f864232dd56b82c63" ] }, { "step": "Monitor", "detail": "Keep the repeated-instability alarm separate from the one-transition record.", "citation_ids": [ "evalevidence-b82a7ee9154a44808447" ] } ], "evidence": [ { "evidence_id": "evalevidence-acaff262127993200de0", "input_id": "refusal-drift-current", "label": "Latest adjacent-run answer-state transitions", "selector": "/models/*/drift_vs_prior", "value": { "openai/gpt-4o-mini": { "n_compared": 41, "drift_rate_pct": 0.0, "new_refusals": [], "new_answers": [], "controls_clean": true }, "anthropic/claude-3-haiku": { "n_compared": 41, "drift_rate_pct": 0.0, "new_refusals": [], "new_answers": [], "controls_clean": true }, "meta-llama/llama-3.3-70b-instruct": { "n_compared": 41, "drift_rate_pct": 0.0, "new_refusals": [], "new_answers": [], "controls_clean": true }, "mistralai/mistral-nemo": { "n_compared": 40, "drift_rate_pct": 0.0, "new_refusals": [], "new_answers": [], "controls_clean": true } }, "interpretation_limit": "This compares each named endpoint with its immediately prior compatible canonical observation. It does not identify a provider-side cause or a trend.", "source_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/refusal-drift-latest.json" }, { "evidence_id": "evalevidence-b82a7ee9154a44808447", "input_id": "refusal-drift-current", "label": "Anytime-valid churn monitor state and blind spot", "selector": "/models/*/churn_monitor", "value": { "openai/gpt-4o-mini": { "state": "calibrating", "pairs_seen": 9, "pairs_needed": 21, "evalue": null }, "anthropic/claude-3-haiku": { "state": "calibrating", "pairs_seen": 9, "pairs_needed": 21, "evalue": null }, "meta-llama/llama-3.3-70b-instruct": { "state": "calibrating", "pairs_seen": 9, "pairs_needed": 21, "evalue": null }, "mistralai/mistral-nemo": { "state": "calibrating", "pairs_seen": 9, "pairs_needed": 21, "evalue": null } }, "interpretation_limit": "The churn monitor watches repeated instability. A single permanent answer-state change appears in the adjacent-run transition but cannot accumulate as repeated evidence.", "source_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/refusal-drift-latest.json" }, { "evidence_id": "evalevidence-b70c411e477c51a49048", "input_id": "refusal-drift-current", "label": "Current panel method and arm", "selector": "/method", "value": { "suite": "frontier-overrefusal-v2", "arm": "full-sweep", "method": "every question is a family of meaning-preserving wordings; the family is the statistical unit; new refusals (answered->refused) are the erasure events; the standing alarm is a mixture supermartingale, so the lifetime false-alarm rate is bounded under unlimited peeking", "method_version": 4, "generated_at": "2026-08-20T01:47:29.258006+00:00" }, "interpretation_limit": "The method applies only to the named panel, prompt families, and dated run.", "source_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/refusal-drift-latest.json" }, { "evidence_id": "evalevidence-023f864232dd56b82c63", "input_id": "eval-registry", "label": "Registry seals for the latest panel transition", "selector": "/runs/ts=2026-08-20T01:47:29.258006+00:00", "value": [ { "model": "anthropic/claude-3-haiku", "seq": 494, "entry_hash": "3f023fdacf93f115bf791a4d76fa27c8f46e27f2cc74d1fee44b0662f8c4278c", "responses_hash": "c1fa48131720bf105f0676d3e23a06d75aa60e861a74e7926bbfbac12a7203b2" }, { "model": "meta-llama/llama-3.3-70b-instruct", "seq": 496, "entry_hash": "f236efac2aa8600ead12fb73350192e0a52b423d2390e9ec27c3396a4cf0707d", "responses_hash": "f9ddb5bef3c30db39ace175e6a062a91d6e4da8e029d913eca7ac473971fd678" }, { "model": "mistralai/mistral-nemo", "seq": 498, "entry_hash": "beb918d09eb08b4e1c3f2f4275e1ac37cc04002f027636e2f68873ffbfa23595", "responses_hash": "d61e23b23d69d8080e6340c7c23b62a8ccb63a83247b93f4d00011a5e1fb6776" }, { "model": "openai/gpt-4o-mini", "seq": 492, "entry_hash": "742df196ad9174a3d78d9321928d82e623671fe3d2c1aa12fcb55150bceb2ad7", "responses_hash": "0e7b505dd4ebde78f71a5c7c7f367eee7a3aa4561dd629937181272b7466b797" } ], "interpretation_limit": "The seals make later rewriting detectable inside the served chain. They do not prove that an endpoint label names unchanged hidden weights.", "source_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/eval-registry.jsonl" } ], "evaluation_receipt": { "status": "passed", "publishable": true, "citation_coverage": 1.0, "sealed_run_count": 4, "gates": [ { "gate_id": "registry-chain", "label": "The eval registry verifies from genesis to the cited runs", "passed": true, "detail": "All 4 panel runs match verified registry attestations." }, { "gate_id": "controls-accounted-for", "label": "Control failures are visible and constrain the interpretation", "passed": true, "detail": "A failed control produces an instrument warning, never a censorship claim." }, { "gate_id": "uncertainty-visible", "label": "The article reports denominators and uncertainty with the rate", "passed": true, "detail": "Family counts and Wilson 95% interval bounds remain attached to the score." }, { "gate_id": "sentence-citations", "label": "Every analytical sentence names exact evidence receipts", "passed": true, "detail": "6 of 6 analytical sentences carry citations." }, { "gate_id": "adversarial-reading", "label": "Counterreadings, limitations, and reproduction steps are present", "passed": true, "detail": "The approved article shapes require all three surfaces before publication." }, { "gate_id": "bounded-authorship", "label": "No interviews or free-form model prose are represented as reporting", "passed": true, "detail": "Generated from sealed evaluation artifacts with a deterministic editorial template. No interviews and no free-form model prose were used." } ] }, "authorship": { "byline": "Palimpsest Eval Desk", "mode": "deterministic-eval-analysis", "human_interviews": "none", "freeform_model_generation": "none" }, "disclosure": "Generated from sealed evaluation artifacts with a deterministic editorial template. No interviews and no free-form model prose were used." }